From Now Until The Deadline
Two weeks from today is the trading deadline and the Yankees have 15 games left to find out exactly where they stand. If the Yankees can feast on the mediocre schedule and go 10-5 or better, they should consider adding some players at the deadline. If they do not, they should become active sellers. Let’s look at each scenario.
If they are buyers, they key area they need to strengthen is their bullpen. Whether it was overuse in April or just mediocre talent, there is little in the pen that is worth keeping other than Rivera and (surprise) Vizcaino. Bruney has had some positive results, but he doesn’t have enough control to trust him in big spots. Myers is not getting lefties out. Proctor is struggling with his command and his strikeouts are down. Based on past results, Villone is going to blowup soon, Ramirez is untested and Farnsworth, well we have all suffered enough of Kyle I suspect.
For the Yankees to make a run, they are going to need upgrades to the pen. Now, they could and should go the internal route and let Ramirez show what he has while getting Chris Britton and Sean Henn back from AAA. But, assuming they continue to avoid doing that, trading for some relief help would be priority #1.
The second thing the Yankees have to do is bolster the bench. Even with Sunday’s outburst, Wil Nieves is hitting .132 while Jorge Posada is on pace for the most plate appearances of his career. The Yankees have to find a real backup catcher and actually trading for a prospect who could fill in for Jorge in the future would be an even better idea.
That would be the extent of the moves I would make to add players. Phil Hughes should be back in about 10 days, so that should fix the rotation and the lineup is going to live or die with players like Abreu, Matsui and Damon either doing what they have in the past or continuing to struggle.
Now, if the Yankees are sellers at the deadline. Things get a lot more interesting. The first and biggest thing they should do is go to A-Rod and sign him to an extension or ask him to waive his no-trade clause. The Yankees need to play hardball with Alex and make it clear to him that they will not be used to benefit his negotiations for a new contract. Alex has to know by now if he wants to stay or go, so make it simple for him. Offer him 5 years and say $150 million on top of his current deal and if he doesn’t agree tell him that negotiations are over and you would like to trade him.
I go back and forth on what I think will happen with A-Rod this off-season, but the more I look at teams and payrolls, the more I think his potential market is very, very small. There are 12 teams that have a payroll of $90 million or higher so let’s start with those as the potential market. Of those, the Orioles are out because they are not a contender. The Mariners are certainly not going to welcome A-Rod back and I just don’t see the Cardinals making that type of move. The Mets have no need for A-Rod, so that leaves New York, Boston, both LA teams, both Chicago teams Detroit and San Francisco. The Cubs are going to have a new owner, but probably not in place in time to bid for A-Rod. The Tigers have a lot of young pitchers who are going to make a lot of money so both of those teams are handicapped in this sweepstakes. The White Sox would probably need to fire Ozzie Guillen (remember he ripped A-Rod) to have a chance. The Angels have a lot of young talent and smart ownership, would they invest all that money in A-Rod? No, I think this comes down to New York, Boston, the Dodgers and the Giants. Boras can take a gamble if he wants to, but if the Yankees make it clear they won’t negotiate beyond July 31st, A-Rod will have a very tough choice.
Even if they can’t trade A-Rod, the Yankees have some very good options. Bobby Abreu would probably accept a trade if his option was picked up and the Yankees should do that and send him and some cash somewhere for prospects. Farnsworth and Myers might hold some appeal and they should be sent packing.
If they are buyers, they key area they need to strengthen is their bullpen. Whether it was overuse in April or just mediocre talent, there is little in the pen that is worth keeping other than Rivera and (surprise) Vizcaino. Bruney has had some positive results, but he doesn’t have enough control to trust him in big spots. Myers is not getting lefties out. Proctor is struggling with his command and his strikeouts are down. Based on past results, Villone is going to blowup soon, Ramirez is untested and Farnsworth, well we have all suffered enough of Kyle I suspect.
For the Yankees to make a run, they are going to need upgrades to the pen. Now, they could and should go the internal route and let Ramirez show what he has while getting Chris Britton and Sean Henn back from AAA. But, assuming they continue to avoid doing that, trading for some relief help would be priority #1.
The second thing the Yankees have to do is bolster the bench. Even with Sunday’s outburst, Wil Nieves is hitting .132 while Jorge Posada is on pace for the most plate appearances of his career. The Yankees have to find a real backup catcher and actually trading for a prospect who could fill in for Jorge in the future would be an even better idea.
That would be the extent of the moves I would make to add players. Phil Hughes should be back in about 10 days, so that should fix the rotation and the lineup is going to live or die with players like Abreu, Matsui and Damon either doing what they have in the past or continuing to struggle.
Now, if the Yankees are sellers at the deadline. Things get a lot more interesting. The first and biggest thing they should do is go to A-Rod and sign him to an extension or ask him to waive his no-trade clause. The Yankees need to play hardball with Alex and make it clear to him that they will not be used to benefit his negotiations for a new contract. Alex has to know by now if he wants to stay or go, so make it simple for him. Offer him 5 years and say $150 million on top of his current deal and if he doesn’t agree tell him that negotiations are over and you would like to trade him.
I go back and forth on what I think will happen with A-Rod this off-season, but the more I look at teams and payrolls, the more I think his potential market is very, very small. There are 12 teams that have a payroll of $90 million or higher so let’s start with those as the potential market. Of those, the Orioles are out because they are not a contender. The Mariners are certainly not going to welcome A-Rod back and I just don’t see the Cardinals making that type of move. The Mets have no need for A-Rod, so that leaves New York, Boston, both LA teams, both Chicago teams Detroit and San Francisco. The Cubs are going to have a new owner, but probably not in place in time to bid for A-Rod. The Tigers have a lot of young pitchers who are going to make a lot of money so both of those teams are handicapped in this sweepstakes. The White Sox would probably need to fire Ozzie Guillen (remember he ripped A-Rod) to have a chance. The Angels have a lot of young talent and smart ownership, would they invest all that money in A-Rod? No, I think this comes down to New York, Boston, the Dodgers and the Giants. Boras can take a gamble if he wants to, but if the Yankees make it clear they won’t negotiate beyond July 31st, A-Rod will have a very tough choice.
Even if they can’t trade A-Rod, the Yankees have some very good options. Bobby Abreu would probably accept a trade if his option was picked up and the Yankees should do that and send him and some cash somewhere for prospects. Farnsworth and Myers might hold some appeal and they should be sent packing.
Comments
Agree that back-up catcher is absolutely necessary. May I throw the name of Piazza out there. Yes, no arm but Nieves isn't throwing anyone out either. Piazza killed lefties last year so he'd balance the line-up. He would allow for Damon/Matsui to sit either for injuries, ineffectiveness, or against tough lefties as a DH. If Giambi returns he offers a righty bat with pop off the bench. He'll cost next to nothing. The Clemens thing would be a problem, but they are all adults right?
Not sure the pen is the problem its made out to be. I think Myers has been unlucky vs. lefties, he's struck out a lot, its just the balls put in play have fallen. I agree on Farnsworth but I am perfectly willing to look at Britton & Edwar for his spot. Torre only uses 4 guys anyway why bother getting more in. Rivera, Proctor, Bruney, Viz, Bruney, Myers, Britton.
Posted by: tim | July 17, 2007 09:49 PM |
Jarrod Saltalamacchia, anyone?
Posted by: Steve | July 18, 2007 02:07 AM |
This is different than previous years. Even if they are a buyer, they need a lot more than a couple of player "rentals" to put the finishing touches on a championship club. This club has real problems and has needs at every position except 2B, SS, and 3B.
So, I'd like to see them be a buyer but a responsible buyer looking for players who can meet some needs for the next 3 or 4 years. Guys like Texeira or Lidge. If no one is available, then just tough it out for the rest of the season.
Farnsworth. What can I say? I've been a big supporter. But even I'd like to dump him.
Posted by: Corey | July 18, 2007 01:14 PM |
Corey, the one thing I've taken from the recent playoffs is that the best team doesn't win getting the invite is what counts. I agree the Yanks are well away from being a championship team, so far away in fact there is little reason to use any significant trading peices to get there, that why rentals & catching lightening in bottle is more attractive to me.
Saltamachia
Posted by: tim | July 18, 2007 10:17 PM |