Season Analysis
The Red Sox have been a just slightly above .500 team since June 1st. To be specific, they played .679 ball through June 1st going 36-17. From June 2nd to August 5th, they went 32-26, a .552 clip. Basically they came out of the gate like gang busters but have coasted a bit since (with expressions like "clip," "gangbusters" and "out of the gate," I sound a bit like a "rube").
I did some digging, which I'm sure most of you have done too and here is why the Red Sox have fallen of a bit. These are June and July splits (i.e. they include June 1st):
Youkilis: June - .264/.395/.368, July - .219/.348/.356
Varitek: June - .234/.322/.403, July - .294/.398/.368 (July yielded a good OBP, but little production).
Lugo: June - .089/.170./139, July - .313/.377/.448. Lugo was good in July, but beyond horrendous in June.
Drew: June - .325/.404/.558, July - .213/.318/.307.
The Red Sox have had a few players that have not necessarily been awful in both June and July, but who have had one good and one bad month or vice versa. As for the pitching:
Beckett: June - 4.46/1.30 (era/whip), July - 3.50/.1.11
Wakefield: June - 6.00/.1.47, July - 5.52/.1.42 (wow, those are bad vitals yet he went 7-4 in that time).
Tavarez: June - 3.30/.1.30, July - 6.75/.2.03 (very bad in July).
The good news is that while these individual performances have hurt the Red Sox somewhat, the Red Sox limited their poor production on an individual basis for the most part. In fact, despite these individual weaknesses, the Red Sox actual Win/Loss % through August 5th is .613 (68-43). Their expected (Pythagorean Winning Percentage - a Bill James creation) is .630 (70-41). So they have basically produced a record consistent with their run production/prevention. but the success was overstated in April and May and understated in June and July. It's funny how things even out.
In other news, Eric Hinske has taken a 3 day leave of absence to deal with family issues and Brandon Moss was called up to take his place. Bobby Kielty is still an option for the bench but somehow he has 5 teams vying for his services. You tell me, what's the appeal of Kielty? He does fair well against lefties, but he has proven he is not an everyday player. I just don't see him as an improvement over Wily Mo Pena lest we forget Wily Mo (or is it just Wily) hit 26 HR's for Cinci in 2004 (in only 336 at bats) and 19 HR in 2005 (in only 311 at bats). Wily Mo has the slugging edge while Kielty has the OBP edge. What do the Red Sox need more? I say stick with Wily Mo...again.
Citgo Sign photo used with permission from Lumiere2005 via flickr.com.
