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October 31, 2007

Curt Schilling

Curt Schilling provided a list of 14 teams, including Boston, that he would consider playing for next season.  Schilling, on his blog 38Pitches, give us insight into the free agency process from a players point of view.  Very interesting.  I have heard/read a lot in the past 24 hours that it is looking like he won't be back, but he really doesn't say that and in fact expresses his desire to remain with Boston given the choice.

After Boston, he lists:  Cleveland, Detroit, Anaheim, New York (Mets), Philadelphia, Atlanta, Los Angeles, San Diego, Arizona, Chicago (Cubs),  St. Louis and Milwaukee.

Take a read and decide for yourself.

My take on Schilling is that it would be very nice to have him around next season.  Certainly his season doesn't warrant another year at $13m, but I would consider $8-10m.  Here are some of the cold hard facts:

 20062007
ERA3.973.87
WHIP1.2161.245
IP204151
H220165
BB2823
K183101
W159
L7

8

K/BB6.544.39
K/98.076.02

ERA and WHIP look pretty similar.  What is noticeable is the drop off in innings.  As pitchers get older, it isn't expected that they will pitch more innings than the year before, so it should be expected that they shouldn't be paid as much either.  But moving on, His K/BB ratio and K/9 are the most telling stats.  Essentially his K rate has dropped meaning he is getting more of his outs via balls put in play.  While a pitcher can't control what happens to balls put into play (other than home runs) he can control things by avoiding BB, Hit-by-pitches and by striking out more batters.

Voros McCracken has pioneered Defense Independent Pitching Statistics (DIPS) which many teams, probably like the Red Sox, use extensively to evaluate pitchers.  I say the Red Sox probably use it b/c they employed McCracken for a time (I'm not certain if he still works for them or not).  For Schilling, his inability to strike guys out has limited his effectiveness.

Anyway, I'm not sure he will be back, but given his drop in effectiveness, I'd like him back at a reduced rate.  A rate that isn't going to kill should Schilling get hurt.  Schilling offers some additional perks as well as he is always going to help the young pitchers.  Thoughts?

October 30, 2007

Bobby Meacham

Want a quick and easy way to see if someone in their 30's or older is a real Yankees' fan?  Say the name Bobby Meacham to them.  If they stare at you blankly, they are not a real fan.  If they say to you, "the guy who tried to hold back Milton Bradley a few weeks ago?", they know their baseball, but not their Yankees.  If they start shuddering at the very mention of the name, they are a true Yankees' fan. 

For those of you who are too young to remember, Bobby Meacham was the starting shortstop for the 1985 Yankees, probably the best team of the Mattingly era and the one that fell two games short of the division title.  (Sadly, we didn't have a wild card then)  Those two games were probably due to Bobby Meacham and the psychological damage he caused to this writer was immense.  The guy simply couldn't play.  He would strikeout in a big spot or make a huge error.  For the record, Meacham hit .218/.302/.266- yes a .266 slugging percentage and made 24 errors.  Why the Yankees didn't do anything to upgrade that position is still one of the greatest frustrations of my years as a fan. 

Why do I bring this up?  Because Peter Abraham is reporting that Bobby Meacham is going to be the Yankees ' third base coach next season.  I am sure he is a nice man, but the scars of 1985 run deep and I can only hope he is a much better coach than he was a player.  One thing is for sure, the Yankees have to re-sign Posada now because I think a lot of us couldn't handle seeing Bobby Meacham wearing #20 again. 

Pena Back As A Coach

I listened to a lot of the Mattingly and Girardi conference calls today and these were the big points I got out of them.

1- Mattingly isn't mad, bitter anything. He is going to try and become a manager elsewhere, but I think he will come back to Yankee Stadium whenever invited. (phew)

2- Pena is back as a coach for the Yankees. His role hasn't been determined and the Yankees are trying right now to lock up other coaches (contracts for current coaches expire tomorrow) no word on which ones.

3- Girardi said all the right things and really didn't give much else. Apparently, there will be a "formal" introduction Thursday at the Stadium.

Lastly, the Daily News reported that Mariano and his agent were in Tampa negotiating with the Yankees today.

The Final A-Rod Post

Some ancient cultures punished people who had committed great crimes by literally erasing their names from history.  They became nameless entities or a symbol was used in place of their name and I can think of no greater punishment than that for A-Rod.  So, from now on, when I comment about A-Rod, I will do so with the following symbol:  "<".  Why "<" instead of "$"?  Well "$" is seemingly appropriate, but I think "<" as in less than, is a better way to describe he who shall now be nameless.  Anyway, I don't think I will be using the < that often, because unless he plays the Yankees, I have no reason to ever discuss him again and I could not be happier about that. 
 
But, before we say goodbye to <, I thought it would be fun to look at something he said, or something he wrote on his blog last year.  As a note to all athletes, don't blog unless you mean it.  Here it is:
 
"After we were eliminated on Saturday, the media asked me a lot of questions regarding my future in New York -- whether I want to leave, or if I will be traded, etc. I will tell you what I told them: I am 100 percent committed to being a Yankee now and in the future. I don't want to play anywhere else. I never have (and never will) run away from the responsibility I have to this team. I believe I am part of the solution to winning a championship here. I want to finish my career in New York."
 
Here's the link, though I imagine Boras&Co will be smart enough to take this down quickly because how you go from that to opting out 10 days early and not even talking to the Yankees is unfathomable.   
 
As for my own feelings about <'s departure, the stat guy in me is distraught.  Replacing that production is going to be very hard.  But, the rest of me is actually pretty happy.  < was too much of the story in New York, I spent too much time worrying about him and defending him and I can't help but agree with Andy who thinks that <'s personality detracts from whatever team he plays for.  As much as I hate Scott Boras, I don't think that announcement Sunday night was done without <'s approval.  I am not saying the Yankees will be better next year without him, but I have a hunch that <'s departure is not going to be as bad as we think.
 
And let's talk about replacements.  There seems to be three ways to go:
 
1- Sign/trade for another third baseman or let Betemit play the position.
 
2- Move Cano from 2nd to 3rd and find another second baseman.
 
3- Move Jeter from SS to 3rd and find another shortstop.
 
Of the three possibilities, #2 is the one I like the least.  Cano has transformed himself into a pretty good secondbaseman.  He turns a nice double play and his bat (.306/.353/.488) is one of the best at his position. (AL 2B hit .284/.339/.416)  If he moves to third, his bat is still good, but not as good when compared to the position. (AL 3B hit .280/.348/.456).  I think you leave Cano where he is right now.
 
I don't like the idea of Betemit everyday, I think he is perfect for the bench, so I wouldn't mess with that.  The third baseman available in free agency do not impress me.  I know Mike Lowell just won the MVP of the World Series, but he is going to be 34 and he had a OPS split of .993/.767 home and away.  I think he will get a big contract, and I hope the Yankees don't give it to him.
 
Aaron Boone is available.  Just kidding, wanted to see if you were still paying attention.   But, that's my point, there isn't much out there.
 
Trades may be a better way to go and while many will say go get Cabrera from the Marlins.  He scares me.  He is bigger everytime I see him and he makes Manny Ramirez look like a model citizen.  No, I would check and see if two injured guys might be available on the cheap, Joe Crede and Eric Chavez.   
 
Neither one of these guys is going to come close to replacing the offensive production the Yankees lost at third, but they are both much better defensively than <.  You are taking a risk since they both are coming off of surgery, but that is why I am betting you could get them cheaply.  Chavez to me presents the most intriguing possibility because I wonder if you could spin off Jason Giambi in a deal for him?
 
Let me explain, Chavez is signed through 2010 with a club option for 2011 at total of $37 million if he is bought out after 2010.  Giambi is due $27 million for 2008 plus a buyout of his 2009 option.  Billy Beane is one of the best GM's in the business and I can't imagine he likes the idea of 12% of his payroll for the next three years going to a guy coming off of two surgeries.  Giambi was incredibly popular in Oakland and I bet he would go back for a last hurrah.  If the Yankees paid the $5 million fee for the option and sent something to Oakland, would Beane bite?  He would be freed from the Giambi obligation at the end of the season and have money to spend.  The Yankees could take the risk on Chavez and get rid of Giambi at the same time which would free up the DH spot for Matsui. I think it is worth a phone call.
 
As for Crede, Josh Fields hit 23 HR's in his absence last year and Crede will be a free agent after 2008.  Would Chicago be willing to give him up for a mid-level prospect since they might want to go with Fields?  Again, worth a phone call.
 
My last idea is more generalized, but what about moving Jeter over to third?  Cal Ripken did it, so why not Jeter?  Despite the gold gloves, he has never been a great shortstop and his arm is good enough for the longer throws.  At some point, I think the Yankees will have to make this move anyway, so what about doing it now?
 
There are obviously a lot of other ways to go and we will discuss them more in the future, but from now on it will be about filling the opening at third base and not about <. 

Looking Ahead, Is It Too Soon?

While still enjoying things, my mind wandered to thoughts of 2008.  Just a few notes to consider when forming your strategies and opinions on how to construct a team capable of defending a world title.

Salaries coming off the books:

Matt Clement - $9.5m, Curt Schilling - $13m, Mike Lowell - $8m, Tim Wakefield - $4m, Julian Tavarez - $3.35m, Eric Hinske - $2.8125m, Mike Timlin - $2.7m, Wily Mo Pena (already gone) - $2.5m, J.C. Romero (already gone) - $1.6m, Brendan Donnelly - $1.4m, Doug Mirabelli - $750k, Eric Gagne - $6m, Bobby Kielty - $500k.

That's over $56m in payroll that drops off the books.  Now consider that raises are in order for Kevin Youkilis (first year arb. elig.) and slight increases for Jonathan Papelbon and the other guys under 3 full seasons, but still there is going to be cash available.  Also consider that Coco Crisp is likely to be traded this off-season.  His $5.17m put it to $60m in freed up cash.

Some of that extra cash will also be spent on Mike Lowell, should he be re-signed.  If he gets $12m that cuts the resources to $48m, still enough to make significant inroads to helping the team.  But please tell me, won't you, just where you'd spend that money.

Your immediate options include re-signing current free agents and perhaps considering giving long term deals to Papalbon and Kevin Youkilis ala Nomar Garciaparra.  The idea would be to have them sign into their free agency years.  Those are just a few.  While we can all keep enjoying these good times, there is work to be done to keep this train a rollin'.

Anyway, I'll cut it at that and let me know your ideas.

October 29, 2007

That Was Fast

Check out this report in the Journal News tonight.  That is a great spot for them both and I hope they have a lot of success.   I just hope A-Rod doesn't join them.

And, if you were wondering, the Yankees are not scheduled to play the Dodgers next season.  But they will come to New York May 29th to play the Mets.  Of course the NL does come to Yankee Stadium for the All-Star Game.

UPDATE 12:35am- Joe Torre was just on Letterman and David asked him about going to LA.  Torre's response was:  "There has been a time or two when something that's been in the newspaper hasn't been true.  There is nothing to any of it, so far."  (Keep in mind, they usually film these shows around 5-6pm. 

With that, I am going to bed. 

Boras on 1050AM In New York At 5:20pm Today

If you are not in New York, follow this link if you are interested in listening.  I will be picking up my daughter, so please post a comment if you hear anything good.

Statement From Mattingly

Don's agent released the following today:

“Don was extremely disappointed to learn today that he wasn’t the organizations choice to fill the managerial vacancy. Instead, he was informed the organization offered the position to Joe Giradi.

Don feels both Joe and Tony Pena represent true professionalism both on and off the field and he was honored to be among them as candidates for the managerial position. Don extends congratulations to Joe and wishes him and the organization good luck next year!

Today is a very difficult day because managing the Yankees was Don’s aspiration and goal since becoming the hitting coach four years ago. Even though this opportunity has passed him by he wants to thank Mr. Steinbrenner for his initial faith, inspiration and support throughout his playing and coaching career.
Don will use this time to reflect on this experience while considering future family and career options. In the meantime, he did inform the Yankee’s that given the circumstances he won’t accept a coaching position within the organization during 2008.”

Typical class from Don and hopefully he will be back at Old Timer's Day soon. 

Another Crazy Day In Yankeeland

Say this for the Yankees, they might not be playing, but they are certainly making news.  Fresh off the A-Rod debacle, the Yankees have apparently offered the managerial job to Joe Girardi. 

These are not George's Yankees anymore, George would have given the job to Mattingly in a second.  Not saying that's a bad thing, but it is a notable one.

And, what can we expect from Girardi?  We know he will work hard, but his usage of young pitchers makes me pause.  Let's look at the 2006 Marlins staff.

Dontrelle Willis was the ace. He was 25 and his first six starts of the year by pitch count were: 107, 111, 113, 106, 92, 120.  Of his 34 starts, only five were less than 100 pitches and at one point he made seven-straight starts of more than 115 pitches.  To be fair to Girardi, he never let him go past 125 pitches, but it was a lot.

And it wasn't just Willis.  Jason Johnson didn't become a starter until May and once he was he got used. He was 41st overall in baseball at an average of 99.297, just ahead of Andy Pettite.  Anibal Sanchez wasn't far behind (48th/98.8235) just ahead of Randy Johnson. 

None of this means it isn't correctable.  Just as the "Joba Rules" were put in place this year, Cashman can come up with some Kennedy and Phil rules to protect them.  I hope he does and if so, I think this will be a pretty good choice.  Joe Torre always talked about how great a manager Girardi would be and in his one year of work, he was very, very good. 

The sad part of all of this is Don Mattingly.  What happens with him now?  I am afraid he might take this rejection personally.  He clearly wanted the job and he didn't get it.  Reports say he has turned down an offer to coach and I would expect him to show up as a coach in LA if Joe Torre really does head there to manage.  But, the big question is next season when they close Yankee Stadium, will Mattingly choose to be a part of that?  It would be awful if he didn't and I hope the Yankees do everything they can to make sure he is there.

I was originally going with an A-Rod post today, but that will wait for tomorrow.  If you haven't read it, check out Buster Olney's take on ESPN or Mike Vaccaro's in the Post.  Better yet, take a listen to Peter Gammons on ESPN Radio.  (I can't link to it and you need to be an insider to get it, but it is worth a little digging to find.) I can't recall ever hearing Gammons come down on a player like that.  Cynics will say it's his Red Sox bias showing through, but I think he is genuinely upset. 

Boston Red Sox - 2007 World Series Champions

Wow, so many New Englanders just won free furniture from Jordan's.  That's what this World Series win is all about, free furniture.  All all of the nation won free tacos too.  That's right, coast to coast, free tacos.

Ok, it feels good to have a 2nd Championship in 4 years too.

I think Tom Werner said it best (I can't believe I just said that) when during the postgame ceremony, that 2004 was for all Red Sox fans of present and past while this one was for the fans today proving that the Red Sox could do it again.

MVP - Mike Lowell

Not a bad pick.

So many others contributed both this postseason and all season long.  Lowell, Okajima, Papelbon, Ortiz, Ramirez, Pedroia, Youkilis, Beckett and Francona.  I'm not sure what I'm writing about right now as it takes a team, from top to bottom and no one individual makes a team.

Soak it in Red Sox fans and stake out your spot on the victory parade (whether on the street or on your couch...or Tivo).

All the worry about blowing the AL East lead, signing J.D. Drew to an outrageously large contract, Julio Lugo stinking to start the year, getting down 3-1 to Cleveland, that worry can all be dismissed.  The Red Sox won the World Series.

Hats off to Bobby Kielty too as his home run, extending the lead to 3 runs, was the winning run.  Jon Lester too.

One last note before I sign off.  Just what was Fox thinking when they decided Game 4 of the World Series was a good time to spend 15 minutes talking about Alex Rodriguez?  If baseball is supposed to mean anything, isn't it insulting to Rockies fans, Red Sox fans and baseball fans in general to talk about a guy and his opting out of a contract during a tense part of the World Series?  Alex Rodriguez and his agent Scott Boras called Fox reporter/columnist Ken Rosenthal during the game to get maximum publicity for ARod's cause.  What a joke.  Boras obviously doesn't respect the game if he felt tonight was the appropriate time to let the world know of his client's intentions.

I know, it's all about money for Boras and ARod.  Enjoy your money Alex and your mercenary approach to baseball.  And if you think he has really opted out of this deal, you might not have ever been involved in a negotiation.  Boras is using his leverage on this one don't forget he has 10 days from now to officially decide.  Joe Buck and Tim McCarver, just when I thought I could stand you two, you take the ARod story and run with it.  Poor timing lads.

Now that the season is over, feel free to talk about it, but not during the World Series.  Alright, rant over.  I do hope Fox doesn't hold lifetime rights to MLB playoffs though.

Be safe Red Sox fans and find a way to safely enjoy this win.

October 28, 2007

Goodbye Alex

Alex Rodriguez has opted out of his deal with the Yankees. Scott Boras offered this gem of a quote:

"Alex's decision was one based on not knowing what his closer, his catcher and one of his statured pitchers was going to do.  He really didn't want to make any decisions until he knew what they were doing." 

Never mind that he had 10 days until after the World Series to do this and the Yankees were preparing an offer and had requested a face-to-face meeting with him.  Clearly, this guy wanted out and I hope the Yankees accommodate him and let him leave.  I will never understand Alex, I don't know if it's the money that drives him but I now fully expect him to end up in the same situation as he did in Texas. And, the timing of this move leads you to conclude that he really wanted to stick it to Steinbrenner.  So be it, the 2008 Yankees just got a lot weaker, but as I said a week ago, this is a huge opportunity for the club to take a step back toin order to take a leap forward. 

I don't want to clog up the blog with anymore on this tonight, this space should go to the Red Sox, they've earned it and they look like they will have something happy to talk about, but I will be back tomorrow with more on this.   

World Series Game 3

Game 3 was a roller coaster at times, a breeze at others.  A quick start, followed by a slide, then concluded with another explosion.  I don't like to say these kinds of things, but the Red Sox line-up is just playing really well right now, much better than Colorado's line-up.  They are relentless in their approach.  If a pitcher isn't throwing strikes, he is generally screwed.  The Red Sox will make him pay.

I had a few gripes with Terry Francona tonight, but to his credit, he did the best he could given his resources.  First, why bring in Lopez against Hawpe who, as Tim McCarver said, had trouble with heat.  Lopez is an 88-89 pitcher tops and Hawpe took advantage of that.  There was another, but I am so tired, I can't remember what it was.  No matter, the Red Sox won!

Only 1 team has come back from a 3-0 game deficit.  I can't remember who it was though.  Hmmm.

Game 4 Sunday 8:23pm (so Fox claims).  Jon Lester vs. Aaron Cook.

Oh yeah, Daisuke Matsuzaka's 2 run single was probably the most unlikely thing I have ever seen.  Great stuff.  Ok, sleep time.  Drool city, here I come.

October 26, 2007

Youkilis to Sit Saturday

Terry Francona announced today that Kevin Youkilis is the odd man out in game 3.  He didn't say if Youkilis would also be the designated sitter for game 4.  With Youkilis on the bench, David Ortiz will play first.

I expect that Youkilis will play game 4 and Lowell will sit and if there is a game 5, Ortiz will sit as the Red Sox will be facing Jeff Francis, a lefty, again.

World Series - Game 2

A night of outstanding pitching for the Red Sox.  Curt Schilling was able to get his creaky joints working enough to get him through 5.1 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 4 K.  Schilling admitted after the game that he wasn't able to get loose in the top of the 6th, hence the quick hook at only 82 pitches.  A solid game for him..

As good as Schilling was last night, I was most impressed with Hideki Okajima.  Time after time this year, he has stepped up.  Last night he gave the Red Sox 2.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 K.  That is amazing middle relief and allowed Terry Francona to go right to Jonathan Papelbon in the 8th.  Great job.  Where would the Red Sox be without Okajima this year?  Probably playing golf.

Papelbon also deserves credit.  After giving up a single to Matt Holliday (Holliday had 4 of the 5 Rockies hits last night), Papelbon noticed Holliday's 89 foot lead off first and easily picked him off.  Holliday after the game said he knew he needed to get to 2nd to get himself into scoring position, but he gave away his intentions with his ridiculously large lead.  Hat's off to Holliday though, he was basically all Colorado had in game 2.

The bats took the night off (for both teams).  Game 3 Saturday night in Colorado.  Daisuke Matsuzaka vs. Lynn native Josh Fogg.  A 2-0 World Series lead is nice, but no guarantee.  You remember 1986, don't you?

Notes:

 - For all the calls for Jacoby Ellsbury to replace Coco Crisp, he is hitting .188/.316/.188 (yes, a .504 OPS) in the postseason and .143/.333/.143/.476 in the World Series.  Despite his lack of production, he still seems to be far more productive than did Crisp (.156/.182/.188/.370).  Ellsbury is popular right now and even if he isn't hitting, people are happier to have him in there right now.  Perception is an interesting thing.  Let me know your thoughts on whether Ellsbury or Crisp is the better option right now.  I say Ellsbury as they have won all games he has started.  That doesn't mean Ellsbury had a ton to do with those wins, but why mess with it, right?

 - I was lucky to be at Fenway last night courtesy of my bro (thanks bro).  We had standing room only tickets, but we had little luck finding room to stand.  Fenway was packed dangerously full last night.  There was one moment just prior to the game when were negotiation traffic at the top of the firstbase grandstands where the mass of people basically stopped.  There was no Fenway security to help and panic/anger almost boiled over.  One father was with his young son and even asked me for help keeping an eye on the poor kid.  The crazy part was I was shoulder to shoulder with a Boston Fire official who had little to say about the issue.  I'm not sure if he was working or just taking in the game.  Fenway just doesn't have the real estate to allow for such crowds.  They need to either limit capacity (best idea) or expand.  Expanding is probably limited to vertical expansion, but whatever they need to do to make the place safe, they ought to do it.  Until they do expand, they seem content to put up temporary seats anywhere possible to pack 'em in.

October 24, 2007

World Series Game One

Josh Beckett striking out the side in the top of the first and Dustin Pedroia hitting a lead-off home run in the bottom of the first basically set the tone for game 1.  The Red Sox pounded the Rockies who looked a bit lost.

In case you didn't hear Fox broadcasters mention the fact the Rockies were coming off an 8 game lay-off, well they were coming off an 8 game lay-off.  I have no idea if that was the real reason nothing worked for them, but that certainly will be the theory.

I'm glad the Red Sox put this one in the books, but there is a ton of baseball left and they cannot expect Colorado to roll-over again.  Boston will have to work hard to make sure they stay focused.  We should all hope Terry Francona does his best Bill Belicheck impression and, no, not start using videotape, but convinces his players that they did make mistakes and that one game does not a World Series Champion make.

Notes:

One of the funniest conversations ever was when Fox had a microphone on Royce Clayton.  Clayton and Coco Crisp were talking about Taco Bell's promotion giving away free tacos if anyone stole a base in game one.  "I ain't got my taco."

Eric Gagne worked his 2nd consecutive "clean" inning.  Maybe keeping him on the roster was a good move despite his work coming in garbage time.

Fox broadcasters were questioning why Beckett pitched through 7 innings thinking Francona should have yanked him sooner.  I have to assume it was because he only ended up throwing 93 pitches and any chance you get to save the bullpen, you take.

As much talk about the Rockies winning their first 2 rounds so easily resulting in the 8 game lay-off and how it might impact their performance, we are now going to hear about how such an easy game 1 victory might impact the Red Sox later in the series.

Did you realize only 5 guys on the active roster were around when the Red Sox won the 2004 World Series?  Mike Timlin, Jason Varitek, Curt Schilling, David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez.  Tim Wakefield was on the 2004 squad, but is inactive this round and Kevin Youkilis was on the team in 2004, but not on the active roster for the World Series.  When I heard that on Fox, it made me realize just how quickly a team can change.

Fox also showed a stat that the Red Sox set a record for largest game 1 margin of victory in a World Series.  The previous high was 11 and the winner of game 1 went on to lose the World Series in both instances.  It is stats like those that make you realize that it is just 1 game and no matter how big the margin of victory, it all gets left in that game with game 2 starting with a clean slate.  It is also Fox's way of sensationalizing everything.

Joe Buck went to lengths to tell us that Todd Helton has always been just as good a hitter on the road as he has at home in Coors.  Really?

Career numbers for Helton:

home: .367 avg, .465 obp, .663 slg, 1.128 OPS, 185 HRs

road: .295 avg, .394 obp, .502 slg, .896 OPS, 118 HRs.

Joe, does that look like the same production to you?  What a lame, lazy comment.

Thursday night is listed again as an 8:23pm start (Wednesday's game was listed as an 8:23pm start, but really got underway at about 8:35pm).  Curt Schilling vs. Ubaldo Jimenez.

October 23, 2007

Boston Red Sox - 2007 American League Champions

I was told the last post I had featured a lame title (thanks Peter).  How does this one sound?

News:  Tim Wakefield has been left off the roster due to injury.  Sad because he is a long time Red Sox and no one is more deserving of this opportunity than Wakefield.

Taking Wakefield's place?  Kyle Snyder.  Not a huge surprise, he pitched fairly well this year and can give you move than a few innings at a time.  Julian Tavarez was also a candidate and I think most would have expected him, but he threw a ton of innings this year and really wasn't sharp for the 2nd half of the season (5.48/1.59) and very bad in September (7.27/1.50).  Snyder probably fills the long relief/spot start role.  Let's hope we don't see him pitch an inning.

Surprise retention:  Eric Gagne.  Despite being, well, terrible thus far in a Red Sox uni, he made the cut.  Perhaps his game 6 outing, a "clean" inning, did the trick to convince management and Francona.

Keys to the World Series match-up against Colorado:

Ellsbury stays in the line-up.  This was actually confirmed by Francona today, so no worries there.

Jon Lester has to step up in his game 4 start.  He pitched well in his 2nd post-season appearance (game 4) shutting out the Indians over 3 innings, but he also imploded in game 2 with 2 earned runs in 0.2 IP including a HR allowed.  So he was certainly a mixed bag in the playoffs and this being his first postseason start, he needs to submit a solid outing.

Terry Francona has to figure out a way to best maximize the offense for the Colorado games.  With no DH, he has to figure out a rotation for Kevin Youkilis, Mike Lowell and David Ortiz.  I would give each one of them a night off and forget trying to figure out a way to get all 3 in.  I heard one suggestion on the radio today to bench Lugo, have Ortiz at 1b, Youkilis at 2b (yes, you read that right) and Pedroia at ss.  Please, let's not play that game.  Why would you move 2 very good fielders out of their position just to get Lowell, Youk and Ortiz all in the same game?  Bad Idea Jeans.

Game 1 Wednesday night at Fenway.  Josh Beckett vs. Jeff Francis.  8:23pm first pitch on, yes, you guessed it, Fox.

Two Must-Reads

While I continue my plans to dismantle the Yankees (joking) I thought I would point out two very interesting articles on the net today.

The first is a very different take on the Joe Torre decision.  I like Heyman and I think he is usually very plugged into the Yankees' situation since he used to cover them for Newsday, but I hope he is wrong here.  At this point, it is a pointless argument, but Heyman's piece is really about the first one I have seen that didn't praise Joe for his choice and therefore I pointed it out. 

The second is far more important.   Let me say right off the bat before the Boston fans rise up against me that I don't think there is a conspiracy here, but like Rosenthal concludes, this is a terrible job by baseball.  Bad job by me that I hadn't realized before that Mitchell was a member of the Red Sox organization, serving on the board.  He should be required to step down from that immediately because even though I trust his integrity, it is a potential conflct of interest and a bad position for a person who has to be neutral to be in.


October 22, 2007

What If?

Just spitballing here, but what if the Yankees did something totally out of character this offseason and did a complete rebuild of the team?  What if besides agreeing that Hughes, Joba and Ian are in the rotation they didn't resign Posada and Mo, let A-Rod walk away and traded some veterans for more prospects? 

Would it cost them anything except tv ratings?  I don't think so because the Yankees are about to enter a 2-3 year period where every ticket they have is going to be sold.  Think about it, next year is the last time baseball will be played in Yankee Stadium.  How many people are going to want to go at least one last time?  And in 2009, how many people are going to want to go and see the new ballpark?  

So, if the tickets are going to be sold anyway, what about a two-year rebuilding plan. Let's put Duncan in right for a season and see what happens.  Let's get some young hitting prospects in some trades and see what happens.  It will never happen, but the Yankees would probably be much stronger down the road if they did do it. 

October 21, 2007

Final Round of the Playoffs

The Red Sox are in the World Series.  Give credit to the Cleveland Indians, they are a good squad and will probably be good for the next few years, unfortunately for the Red Sox and the rest of baseball.

Boston was able to win the game without having to use a starter in relief or by completely taxing the bullpen, although Terry Francona was plain wrong in having Hideki Okajima start the 8th inning.  Hideki had thrown 2 quality innings and just doesn't have more than that in him, that's why he was shut down in September because he had, for lack of a better term, a tired arm.  Come on Terry.  The team does have 2 days off now, so that is a good thing.

That criticism aside, good series Terry.  You eventually made a solid decision in benching Coco Crisp and inserting Jacoby Ellsbury.

I can't believe how close this game was and then how it went out of control.  Dustin Pedroia proved anyone (me) that doubted how ready he was for post-season play, wrong.  If it were up to me, I would have benched him in game 6 (2-4 with a walk) and maybe tonight (3-5, 5 rbi).  Down 3-1, the Red Sox pulled it out.  I was fairly grumpy these past few days, but never threw up the flag.  This team is good, perhaps not great, but certainly good enough to compete.

Classic postgame moment:  Chris Myers, interviewing Manny Ramirez, tried to ask Manny about the "controversial" play when Kenny Lofton was held at 3rd on the ball hit off the grandstand seats along 3rd.  Manny clearly thought Myers was asking about the ball Julio Lugo dropped when Manny had a chance to call him off.  Total miscommunication, quality entertainment.

In game complaints with Fox.  Both Joe Buck and Tim McCarver said it was a forgone conclusion that Lofton would have scored had Joel Skinner waived him in on the previously mentioned play, yet Fox never showed a shot of where Lofton was when Manny fielded the ball.  So to tell me that something is a guarantee, yet not provide anything to back it up is weak.

Anyway, here is the schedule, get your sleep in now.

World Series game 1 Wednesday @ Fenway, time TBD (I imagine some later than late times as usual).  UPDATE:  SOME TIMES NOW PUBLISHED.

GameMatchupDayDateTime ETTV
Gm 1COL @ BOSWedOct. 248:23pm FOX
Gm 2COL @ BOSThuOct. 258:23pm FOX
Gm 3BOS @ COLSatOct. 278:23pm FOX
Gm 4BOS @ COLSunOct. 288:23pm FOX
Gm 5*BOS @ COLMonOct. 29TBD FOX
Gm 6*COL @ BOSWedOct. 31TBD FOX
Gm 7*COL @ BOSThuNov. 1TBD FOX
* - if necessary

October 20, 2007

The Next Yankee Manager

Mitchell said it in the comments the other day and Andy and I have talked about it a lot recently.  You never want to be the guy who who follows the guy- you want to be the guy who follows the guy who followed the guy.  To put that into English, you don't want to be the guy who follows Torre. 

That is a very important point as the Yankees start their managerial search.  This is not the time to turn to Don Mattingly.  Mattingly is a God in the Yankees' universe and putting him in as manager now will only end badly.  The expectations are too high and if Mattingly follows Joe, I think there is a very good chance that things end up with Mattingly turning his back on the Yankees after being fired.  And to me, that is too high a price to pay. If I am the Yankees, i send Mattingly to AAA to manage for a year and then bring him back as bench coach in 2009.  Some seasoning would not be a bad thing and I think Don would be more than happy to agree to that situation if there was a plan to eventually make him the manager. 

And that is the tricky dance the Yankees will have to negotiate in this search.  The ideal situation was to give Torre two more years with the understanding that he retire after 2009 to some other position in the organization.  Since that won't happen, who could fill that slot and basically keep the seat warm for Mattingly while also developing some of the younger talent?

Obviously, Joe Girardi is out of this discussion, he wants to be a long-term manager.  That doesn't bother me because as much as I like Joe and admire the job he did in Florida, I have a lot of concerns with how he used his young pitchers.  Maybe it was the situation he was in down there, but Girardi abused Dontrelle Willis and didn't handle some of the other young pitchers very well.  He is not the guy who I want deciding how to use Hughes, Joba and Kennedy next season.

Larry Bowa would be an intriguing candidate and if Mattingly got the job I would have wanted him as bench coach, but according to this, he is headed out of town.   (notice who the pitching coach is in that story too)  That is a big loss, because Bowa was a great third base coach and he did a wonderful job with Cano. 

Assuming he is gone, there is still another coach who could fit that caretaker role, Tony Pena.  Yes, things did not end well the last time Pena was a manager, but look at his record.  Pena is the only guy to get a winning season out of the Royals since 1993.  He did it with Darrell May as his ace (remember May in 2005?) and while he had Carlos Beltran, he didn't have much else.  I think the guy is a pretty good manager and he knows New York.  Best of all, and this will sound very crass, he is expendable. Firing Tony Pena will not upset the Yankees' universe the way that firing Don Mattingly would.  Pena can be the bridge between two iicons and there is a decent chance he will be successful in doing so. 

So, Pena is my guy, and the good news is that he is on the interview list.   I don't expect him to get the job since the pressure will be on the team to come up with a big name, but I think he is the right choice.

Then again, maybe Torre and the Yankees' management wake up Monday morning and realize the mistake they have made.   Sadly, I don't see that happening.

 

October 19, 2007

Joe's Story

Joe gave a riviting, if not very insightful press conference today that left me feeling empty.  Empty because it became clear to me that this is a divorce that never should have happened.

Joe made it sound like he left not over money, but over a lack of support.  

“The terms of the contract were the probably the thing I had the toughest time with,” Torre said.  “The one year for one thing, the incentives for another thing.  I had been there 12 years and I didn’t think motivation was needed.  I felt pretty well renewed every year going after something and we knew exactly what was expected here.  I just didn’t think it was the right thing for me, I didn’t think it was the right thing for my players.”

He also made it clear that this process was not a negotiation:

“When I expressed my dissatisfaction with the length of contract and the um….And the length of contract for the reason I think you are all aware of.  It’s just starts when you are in the last year of a contract especially for this organization you know after you lose two or three or four games the questions are going to come up again.  And again, it’s tough when you have to answer those questions, but you certainly understand they are going to be asked..  And I explained that and the fact that the incentives, which to me I took as an insult.  You know we basically get to postseason and now all of a sudden we are satisfied with where we’ve gotten to. “

It will be interesting to see how we view October 18, 2007, when we look back at it in a few years.  The Yankees ran off four trips to the World Series after they fired Casey Stengel and there are certainly many reasons to think that this current team can continue to make the postseason.  But, there will be tremendous pressure on the next manager and I can't escape the feeling that both sides deserve blame in this situation.  Joe and the Yankees are both diminished today and I think both of them will have regrets going forward.  

But, go forward they must.  Thank you to Joe for a wonderful 12 years and good luck to him in the future, whatever he does.  Now, the Yankees have to get to work and first up is getting a manger.  We will discuss that further this weekend.   

October 18, 2007

Back to Boston

Nice offensive display and an amazing pitching performace by Josh Beckett.  Totally dominating with a little fire, saying hello to Kenny Lofton, was Beckett.

Back to Boston for game 6 on Saturday.  I will be unavailable between now and then to post, so please keep the comments flowing.  If you haven't registered as a commentor yet, please do so, so I don't have to approve your comments. 

Ok, my fence sitting is done.  On 2 issues anyway.  Coco Crisp needs to sit and so does Julio Lugo.

Coco - He looks lost, almost mentally distant from this game.  There were a few close-ups and he appeared sad, as if he was in shock.  I am not going to pretend to be a master of body language and facial expressions, but if forced to levy a diagnosis, I'd say this guy is shell-shocked.  Weird.  Anyway, get him out and insert Jacoby Ellsbury.  This is a change from earlier as I though the problems with the offense were more related to a general team-wide lack of urgency, but with Coco, there seems to be trouble.

Lugo has been just bad.  His error (it wasn't an error but it should have been) cutting in front of Dustin Pedroia in tonight's game and his overall lack of production (.167 avg in the ALCS) have earned him some pine.  It feels like the 1st half of the season again.  I don't think Alex Cora is a longterm solution, but perhaps he is good for a game 6 start.

Dustin Pedroia bounced back tonight getting on base 3 times.  Fox did point out that he had been hitting the ball hard all series, so perhaps he never lost his stroke after all.

Checking out the boxscore, you'll see the top 4 guys got on base (11 times between them) and it showed.  When the top of the order can stir things up, runs get scored.

Saturday 8:21pm @ Fenway:  Game 6

And Now For Something Completely Different....

You may notice that the site looks different. You may also notice that things look strange. Bear with us, we are redoing the format a bit and should have things settled in the next few days. As always, feel free to email us with any comments or suggestions and thanks for your support. -Peter and Andy

Joe Gives Yankees Bronx Cheer

Joe Torre said "no thanks" to the Yankees offer of a contract extension.  According to ESPN, Torre turned down a 1 year, $5 deal with incentives that could have boosted the total to $8m based on postseason success.

More soon.

UPDATE 4:25pm- The deal was for a base salary of $5-million with an additional $1-million bonus paid for each round of the playoffs the Yankees reached.  In addition, there was a team option for 2009 that vested if the Yankees made the World Series in 2008 at $8-million.  

Personally, I am shocked by this.  I think you have to say the Yankees made a fair offer.  Yes, he would take a pay cut, but he would still be the highest-paid manager in the game and have an opporunity to earn even more in 2008 than he did in 2007.  Maybe Joe was tired of all the bs, maybe he just had enough, but this is an awful way for his legacy to end and knowing how Steinbrenner works, I fully expect some coach or player to be wearing number six next February.

I need to figure out my feelings on a deeper level, but I am initially angry with Joe for doing this.  But, I want to hear from him and hear his side of the story before I really make up my mind.  Needless to say, the offseason is off to about as bad a start as possible. 


Torre Is In Tampa

According to several sources, Joe Torre landed in Tampa early this afternoon on a plane with Brian Cashman.  I don't think they are asking Joe to come down and beg for his job, so I imagine this is the final round of negotiations.  At least that is what I hope because this is getting very, very boring. 

I Am Sure Those Mayflies Were A Coincidence Too....

Check out this little nugget about the Cleveland choice of singer for tonight's game.  Those guys are playing for keeps. (And please note, I am kidding) 

Manny Being Manny or Being Misquote?

Ok, leave it to the media to take a throw-away comment at the end of a long interview session and run with it.  First headline on ESPN, 4th on FoxSports, 5th on CBSSports, 2nd on CNNSI and so on.

Manny said "...losing wouldn't be the end of the world."  He also said about 100 other things.  Manny doesn't do interviews in case you haven't noticed and he was kept around for this one for far longer than any time I can recall (based on words, not minutes).  It seemed to me that he was getting sick of the session and tried to wrap things up with the words above.

He is right, it isn't the end of the world.  On a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being death, losing the ALCS ranks fairly low, right?  So if we take him literally, it isn't a big deal.  Now if you fall into the camp that thinks he doesn't care, well, good luck proving that.  All of his other statements during the interview were were positive and confident in nature.  I can't find the transcript of the whole thing, but Boston.com at least puts the comments into a more neutral setting.

My headline should really say "Manny Being Manny or Are His Comments Being Taken Out of Context" but that would not have fit and would have made for a bad presentation.  But you get the idea.

Anyway, in case anyone forgot, game 5 tonight in Cleveland.  It's a game 1 rematch.  Let's root for similar results.

I recently added my October 2004 archives back on the site (sad that I hadn't done so sooner).  You can see how up and down I was during the ALCS.  I got fairly pissy and pessimistic, so you can understand my game 3 and game 4 posts (for this year).  In fact, they were fairly tame compared with 2004.  IMPORTANT NOTE on the archives, it is best to read them bottom to top as when I started adding posts back in, I did them month by month rather than post by post to save significant time.  Lazy, sure, but easy.

Last thing, I heard a stat and I am not sure I'm getting it 100% right, but it went something like this.  Of the 65 teams that were down 3-1 in the ALCS, 10 have come back to win the series.  The last team?  The 2004 Boston Red Sox. 

Go Red Sox.

October 17, 2007

Enough Already!

Does this sound familiar?

“The Yankees have completed their discussions today. No decisions have been made concerning Joe Torre. The discussions will continue.” 

It's hard to understand what the delay is, but about the only thing we can definitively draw from this is that George is no longer fully in charge.  He made a threat on October 6th.  The Yankees didn't respond to that threat on October 8th.  It is now October 17th and the threat hasn't been carried out.  A new era has been born in the Bronx these past nine days, now we have to wait and see what that means for the future. 

 

ALCS Game 4 Round-Up

The Boston Globe has some good articles on last night's game:

Nick Cafardo has a good one relating to the decision Terry Francona has made (or hasn't).  Basically the Red Sox were going to be down 3-1 in the series with or without Jacoby Ellsbury in for Coco Crisp.  The problems with the Red Sox are much greater than some switches (see my comments from my last post).

Cafardo also chips in this one about Schilling and Daisuke.

ESPN's Bill Simmons submitted this diary of game 4.

The Herald's Rob Bradford has a 180 degree opinion from that of Cafardo on the lack of moves by Francona.

The Projo's Art Martone, one of my favorites, has a daily Red Sox blog that is something like ESPN's Buster Olney's morning blog, but Martone's focuses heavily on the Red Sox and spares us news of the Kansas City Royals and Washington Nationals.  Good daily reading.

As for game 5, C.C. Sabathia is again on the mound against Josh Beckett.  No reason to believe the Red Sox can't beat up on Sabathia again and that Beckett won't be good again.  If they can get this thing back to Boston for game 6, that would be a good thing.

October 16, 2007

Game 4 Disaster

Talk about a complete collapse.  No hitting, no pitching.  For a 3rd straight ALCS game in a row, a Red Sox starter couldn't get past the 5th inning.  Tim Wakefield pulled the quintessential Wakefield performance, marked by absolutely dominating stuff for a while and then the wheels came off...quickly.  Manny Delcarmen was brought in to douse the fire, but he must have been packing gasoline.

So now what?  Game 5 Thursday night in Cleveland.  Of course it is a must-win, but just what can the Red Sox hope for if they win?  Back to Boston for game 6 and maybe 7 with Curt Schilling and Daisuke Matsuzaka?

Sure manager Terry Francona could have started Josh Beckett on 3 days rest, but that is far beside the point.  Boston starters not named Josh Beckett have been beyond disappointing.  You'd think such highly paid, highly skilled performers would do more than, well, crumble.

Now that I've called out he pitching staff, the offense gets its medicine too.  We saw too little, too late home runs from Kevin Youkilis, David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez.  Guys like Dustin Pedroia, Julio Lugo, Coco Crisp and  JD Drew just have not shown up.  Guys, this is the playoffs.  There isn't always a "tomorrow" in the playoffs.

The Red Sox are one step away from hot stove talk.  I don't know what else to say here.  We are seeing one of the most disappointing performances in a while.  As for the name of my posts, yesterday was a downer, today a disaster.  I would prefer writing something like "explosion" or "domination" after Thursday's game.

Notes:  Fox did it's best to create a story on the health of Josh Beckett.  Ken Rosenthal and Joe Buck really worked that angle...with no proof of course, just speculation.  Tim McCarver had a dousy tonight.  After Kevin Youkilis swung at the first pitch in his 2nd at bat, McCarver commented on the fact that the Red Sox were now swinging at Paul Byrd's first pitch b/c so many had been thrown for first pitch strikes.  The problem with McCarver's comment is that Youkilis was the first guy that inning to swing at a first pitch.  So why would he claim the Red Sox were now swinging at the first pitch when only one guy had done so?!?  A small, most likely unnoticed comment, but it drove me nuts.  McCarver, please retire tomorrow.

Time for bed and that will be the case for the Red Sox if they don't figure things out quickly.

No News Tonight

The Yankees have issued the following statement:

"The meetings are adjourned for tonight. There have been no decisions made, nor will there be any comment today. The meetings will resume tomorrow.”

This is taking way too long.

Is Anybody Alive Out There?

To quote "Radio Nowhere", is anyone on the East Coast awake right now? It's 1:41am Tuesday morning and the Colorado Rockies are going to the World Series.

And, thanks to MLB scheduling, we won't see the Rockies again until October 24th, eight days from now. Pretty sad and you have to imagine TBS is wondering why it spent so much on MLB playoff rights when all it got out of five series was four sweeps and one extra game. At least they got to promote "Frank TV"!

Now, Fox has to be praying for a Red Sox series win. Cleveland-Colorado in the World Series would be the coldest ever in ratings and temperature. As a baseball fan, you almost have to root for Boston- almost.....

October 15, 2007

ALCS Game 3 Downer

The Red Sox bent over and gave this one away.  I'm not sure why they couldn't muster the intensity needed, but they looked slow, dim-witted and just plain bad against the Indians in game 3.

This game was not essential (obviously), but it would have brought the advantage back to the Red Sox.  I can't put my finger on it, but again, I think they lacked intensity.  Also, J.D. Drew displayed weak body language after grounding out early in the game.  I understand "body language" is not scientific and probably an overused concept, but Drew basically hung his head after grounding out.  Lame.  How about running fast to first?

I am very bummed with the performance of the Red Sox.  It is starting to appear that their second half mediocrity is haunting them.  They are the better squad but they just aren't showing it. right?

Rants:  Jason Varitek deserves some blame for the Kenny Lofton home run.  He called for the fastball which Daisuke had thrown extensively, Fox broadcasters specifically mentioned his use of fastball successfully, as a first pitch to Lofton.  The Red Sox had gone to the "well" too many times with the cheese.  Almost any major leaguer can hit a home run when he is expecting gas.  The book on the Indians is that they struggle with off-speed stuff and stuff that moves.  Why lay in the fastball on a first pitch, especially to a veteran like Lofton?  Daisuke didn't wave off the call either fyi.

Fox also highlighted Royce Clayton giving Lofton the business about how long he took to get into the batters box when his turn was up prior to hitting a home run.  Enough sassing Royce, it didn't work.  In fact, it looked really bad after the fact.

Dustin Pedroia has struggled mightily in the playoffs.  He is swinging at garbage and showing that his swagger and confidence got a bit diluted in the face of playoff baseball.  Time to shake off the nerves Dustin and start playing like you can play.

Was it written into Daisuke's contract that he has to go to a full count on each batter he faces?  The guy is maddeningly inconsistent with his ability to throw K's.  For a dude that has 7 pitches he can throw for strikes, he drives me crazy.  Perhaps they should refer to him as the pitcher that has 7 pitches he can occasionally throw for strikes.  I have to assume he either can't handle the transition to a larger ball and different usage strategies, or he is just isn't what we all hoped he would be.

David Ortiz, what were you thinking?  You had 110 feet to negotiate the liner by Manny that ultimately hit you in the inner thigh.  I hope it stings a bit tonight.

Jason Varitek, you redeemed youself, generating the only offense of the night.  Against Jake Westbrook.  Right, him, yup, the guy no one else could get to.

Game 4 Tuesday night at 8pm or so.  Wakefield (or Beckett on 3 days rest perhaps) against Byrd.

October 14, 2007

Wasted Opportunity

The Red Sox were able to get to Fausto Carmona last night essentially neutralizing the Cleveland Indians 2nd best weapon (behind C.C. Sabathia).  But the Red Sox wasted the opportunity by pitching poorly themselves, early and late.

Curt Schilling fell hard to Earth as far as his post-season reputation is concerned and Eric Gagne proved once and for all he should not be on the playoff roster.  He has not had a stretch since being acquired where one could say he has been effective.  If the Red Sox are lucky enough to advance, I think Eric Gagne will get an early vacation.  Good luck in free agency Eric.

Javier Lopez looked scared and Jon Lester ineffective.  I just don't know how the Red Sox could allow 7 runs in the 11th (I only saw 4 of them cross the plate).  A very big letdown.  Demoralizing in fact.

In Cleveland Monday night for a 7:07pm start (or whenever Fox gets around to allowing the first pitch).  The Red Sox better hope their veteran leadership core will help the team forget this loss and back to their winning ways.  Daisuke Matsuzaka v. Jake Westbrook.  If you can't tell, I think this loss was a bad one.

October 13, 2007

Bonus

The Red Sox got some serious bonus pay last night with C.C. Sabathia being so, so bad.  No one expected Sabathia to lay an egg, but he did just that.  This was great news b/c the game 1 match-up was supposed to be so tough.  It also forced the Indians deep into their bullpen (3.2 IP).

Tonight Fausto Carmona, a very different pitcher, will try to even the score and don't expect another egg.

Peter asked for a prediction from me for this round.  Well, I'm not usually into predictions, that's his category.  Also, there is now 1 game done, so a prediction from me is likely to be greeted with scorn and ridicule, much like the other aspects of my life...sniffles.  Anyway, Red Sox in 6 (I know, I know, they are already up 1-0).

8:07 pm start:  Schilling vs Carmona

October 12, 2007

The Way To Deal With A-Rod

"This will mark the beginning of a national prominence for a franchise."- Scott Boras on the Texas Rangers right after A-Rod signed the richest contract in sports.

And yet, three years later, Texas traded A-Rod to New York and I am pretty sure they are still looking for national prominence or maybe just their own fans to care about them after Dallas Cowboys training camp opens. 

So, what do the Yankees do now with A-Rod?  First the facts.  Right now, they are scheduled to pay him $16-million in '08, $17-million in '09 and $18-million in '10.  He will receive in addition from Texas $8-million in '08, $7-million in '09 and $6-million in '10.  So, he is scheduled to make a combined $24-million in each of the next three years.  (There is also deferred money which Texas is responsible for)  In addition, there is a clause in the deal that essentially will give A-Rod a raise of $5-million per year in '09 and '10, you can sort through the actual details of that here.  Add it all up and New York will have to pay A-Rod $61-million over the next three seasons if he doesn't opt out and A-Rod would receive $82-million total for those three years. 

Now, before we begin discussing his value, let's look at another quote: 

''Obviously my age had a lot to do with it.  If I were 32, it wouldn't have been 250. It probably would've been more like 120 and that wouldn't have made such a big splash. It's a unique contract because of my age. Being a free agent now is so different. I feel good about it, though.''- Alex Rodriguez at age 25, right after he signed his record deal.

I bet Scott Boras doesn't want anyone to read that quote because his client just happens to be 32 and that is significant.  Yes, Boras will talk about playing until he is 45, but that is a stupid bet for a baseball team to make.  The fact is, and the Yankees have seen this a lot in the past few years, few players do anything once they hit 40, the clock is against him.  Wilile Mays had his last truly great season at 34 and his last season in 1973 at the age of 42 was awful.  Hank Aaron's last two years at the ages of 41 and 42 were also sad reminders of his past glory.  So, I think anything over eight years for A-Rod is the equivalent of baseball suicide.

So, I say the Yankees should offer to add five more years to his current deal. That will keep him in New York through the 2015 season at which point he will be 40. Offer him something along the lines of $32-million a year which is overly generous and remind him that by accepting the terms he will be mentioned in history as one of the greatest players ever to play for the greatest franchise in baseball.  Tell him he can be the last name announced on Old Timer' s Day and when he goes into the Hall of Fame, he will go in as a Yankee, having played 12 seasons here.  Give him some sort of option for 2016 based on playing time and then add one more detail.....

Tell him and Scott Boras that all of this goes away if he opts out and that all of this becomes public too.  Boras is a master at creating leverage and one way he does it is by using the Yankees as a threat. He will tell clubs that New York is interested even if they are not and that drives up prices for his clients.  It's smart, but not something you can let him do. If A-Rod truly loves New York he will jump at that deal, if not, he can go out and seek his 12-year/$30-million deal somewhere else and cement his reputation as a baseball nomad.

Finally, Some Baseball

Wow, 4 full days off felt like an off-season.  It'll be nice to see ALCS game one tonight, 7:07pm start @ Fenway, Beckett vs. Sabathia.

The Red Sox announced that Bobby Kielty will start over J.D. Drew.  Why?

Kielty vs. Sabathia in 29 at bats:  .310/.375/.655 with 2 HR's, 7 RBI.

Drew vs. Sabathia in 3 at bats:  .000/.000/.000 with 3 K's.  Small sample size, but 3 K's in 3 at bats is ugly.

Game plan:  The Red Sox have their work cut out.  Sabathia has learned to pound the strike zone with unhittable pitches and has cut his walk rate down dramatically.  Sabathia walked 95 in 180.1 IP in 2001 and just 37 in 241.1 IP this season.  So Sabathia has learned to pitch.  His hit rate has gone up in the same period of time it should be noted, but not as significantly.

So Boston hitters need to find their pitch and put a good swing on it.  They certainly should be encouraged to work the count, but they shouldn't expect a boat load of walks (another reason JD Drew is on the bench).  If Boston is fortunate enough to get Sabathia out of the game mid-way, they still have work to do against a very good bullpen.  Rafael Betancourt, Rafael Perez, Jenson Lewis and Aaron Fultz all have sub 3 ERAs (Betancourt and Perez are sub 2).  These 4 are strikeout pitchers and don't give up many hits.  So getting to the bullpen doesn't help that much.

Lastly you have closer Joe Borowski.  He saved 45 games this year, but did it in entertaining fashion.  His 5.07 ERA is enormous for a closer and it suggest that Borowski can be very good, but when he is bad...

The Indians pose a huge challenge with their pitching.  Their offense is good too.   The core to be most concern with is Victor Martinez, Grady Sizemore, Travis Hafner, but they have some other guys that can hurt you too in Ryan Garko, Jhonny Peralta, Casey Blake and even Kenny Lofton.  Cleveland plated 811 regular season runs (Boston 867), so they aren't the Yankees, but they aren't the Nationals either.

Enough of my attempts at game planning and analysis.  Let's enjoy this thing.  Let me know your thoughts on what the major story lines will be within this game.

October 11, 2007

No Meetings Until Monday- Maybe Tuesday

According to several outlets, the Yankees have decided to postpone their meetings in Tampa until Monday night or Tuesday. Joe Torre will not be invited- at least to the start of the meetings.

Well this is an interesting development, but I am not sure what it means. Could they be sounding out the Cubs about letting Lou Pinella go? Could they be seriously considering keeping Joe? I guess we just have to wait.

Let The Fun Begin!

I have to admit, the title of this post is pure hyperbole.  There is nothing fun about this right now.  Nothing fun about not having baseball I care about to watch and nothing fun about seeing a very good man twist in the wind while a bombastic tyrant makes up his mind. 

I don't think that the lack of news from Yankeeland is a sign they are bringing Joe back.  On many levels, I would like to think so, but I think it is more a function of trying to figure out what they are doing on a number of levels and that simply takes time. 

If you are Yankees' management right now you have to ask yourself two questions before you fire (techincally, not rehire since his contract is up) Joe Torre.  1- Is there someone as qualified to handle this job right now? 2- Will letting Torre go affect our ability to exercise our offseason plan?

I would say the answer to #1 is no right now.  Don Mattingly is many things, but he is a total unknown as a manager and it certainly doesn't sound like he wants the job.  (Comparing taking over the Yankees right now to coaching UCLA when Wooden left is a good hint)  Joe Girardi did some great things in Florida, but he also overused a young pitching staff.  Is that the guy you want in charge right now?  Tony LaRussa would last about five minutes in New York before he attacked a reporter with a bat.  Who else is out there who can come into New York and manage this team as well as Joe did?  The only guy I can think of is Bobby Valentine, he has handled New York before, but I don't see that happening.  The time to replace Joe was after last season when you could have turned to Lou Pinella, now you don't have that option.

As for question 2, it appears that Joe's departure would affect some players' decisions.  Mo, Pettitte and Posada have stated that they want him back.  So have many of the players who are not free agents.  Now, the question is will the players really feel that way if the money the Yankees throw at them is more than anyone else?  I don't know, but it has to enter the calculations.  

And, that is probably the conversation the Yankees are having right now.  I imagine Cashman is trying to convince George and whoever else wants to ditch Torre that a decision like that will guarantee that Posada and Rivera hit the free agent market instead of signing deals in the next few weeks.   

The one player it won't affect is A-Rod.  Sadly, Alex seems destined to head down the path of ruin again.  He has finally become accepted in this town and he has a chance to be mentioned in the same breath as the Yankee immortals.  But, Boras is prattling on about his value being worth a billion to a regional sports network, etc..  I will outline my approach with A-Rod tomorrow, but this seems to be heading to Alex ending up in a baseball backwater, richer than Midas and stuck in last place (again).

October 10, 2007

Thoughts During the Break

So we know the Red Sox are going to be facing the Indians.  I'll comment a bit on the series.  Also, the Yankees have a few decisions to make.  Obviously I'll never know as much as Peter knows about this squad (and all Yankees fans that read this), but I'll offer my thoughts on them in the 2nd half of this post.

Terry Francona announced a change in the rotation swapping Josh Beckett (edit, I meant Curt Schilling, not Beckett!) and Daisuke Matsuzaka.

So it goes:  Beckett, Schilling, Matsuzaka and ?????.  The Red Sox will need a 4th starter and that is up in the air right now.  Tim Wakefield wasn't healthy enough for the 1st round (that was the public reason anyway), so I'm not sure he is an option meaning Jon Lester is the most likely candidate for the 4th spot.

The Red Sox face C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona in games 1 and 2 respectively.  Those 2 are legit aces, or at least they were for the 2007 season.  Sabathia has history, but Carmona's history is limited.  In fact, he was a disaster against Boston in 2006 allowing 5 earned runs in 1.0 IP in 2 appearances.  One was a walk-off grand slam.  But he fixed all that ailed him last year and put together a stellar 2007.  Carmona went 19-8, 215 IP, 199 H, 61 BB, 137 K, with a 3.06 ERA and 1.21 Whip.  Check out his splits and you'll see he was good in the 1st half and GREAT in the 2nd half.  And don't offer up the "yeah, but what did he do against the Red Sox?"  Well, he had 1 start against them and shut them out over 8 IP with 4 H, 2 BB and 6 Ks.  I heard a few people say they weren't impressed with Carmona going into the post-season, but he was great in the "bug game" in Cleveland the other day.

So those 2, Sabathia and Carmona, are great and pose a huge problem for Boston.  Next will come Jake Westbrook (6-9, 4.32/1.41) and Paul Byrd (15-8, 4.59/1.39).  Easier for sure, but you can't dismiss the 3 and 4 starters for Cleveland.

WEEI is reporting that J.D. Drew will sit in favor of Bobby Kielty in game 1 against Sabathia (lefty).

Now, onto the Yankees.  Peter Gammons had a good piece about the Yankees on Tuesday.  They are preparing for major changes starting with their manager Joe Torre.  I have to assume Joe is gone.  Whether it is his decision or the Yankees, I don't think Joe is coming back.  Then there are the players:

c - Posada - free agent (read one site that said there might be an option, can't confirm)

1b - Giambi - under contract

2b - Cano - under contract

3b - ARod - can opt out and expected to do so

ss - Jeter - under contract

lf - Matsui - under contract

cf - Cabrera - under contract

rf - Abreu - free agent (team option for 2008 @ $16m)

dh - Damon - under contract

I talked with Peter about this a while back and he posed a good question.  If the Yankees do not re-sign Posada, just who exactly will catch for them?  The options are limited and while Posada is old for a baseball player and really old for a catcher (36), is a 2 year deal to retain him a bad investment?  Tough call.  He hit .338 in 2007, 61 points higher than his career average of .277.  So his 2007 season had all the markings of a contract season and re-signing him carries major risk, but it might be the best option.  I'd re-sign him as long as he was reasonable.

ARod is going to do whatever he wants to do, most likely become a free agent.  Here is a very good question.  If ARod is being paid $25m a year with the Yankees paying about 2/3 ($16m a year) of that and the Rangers the other 1/3, does it make sense for the Yankees to try and re-sign him at say $30m per season and be responsible for all of the contract?  Is ARod really worth that much?  He clearly offers amazing on-field production, but does he distract too much off the field?  Does he impact team chemistry?  If I were the Yankees, I'd let him go and take my chances.  Aaron Boone is available, isn't he (joke).  The replacement options are limited, but Brian Cashman gets a chance to earn his pay with this one.

I'm guessing the Yankees will exercise the option on Abreu.  He isn't worth $16m, but it's only 1 year and makes sense.  He is a good hitter.

The pitching staff will lose Roger Clemens, but will have a bunch of guys around they probably don't want around.  Carl Pavano is on the books for 2008, Keg Igawa is on the books, Mike Mussina is on the books and Kyle Farnsworth will be around.  The biggest possible losses are Andy Pettitte and Mariano Rivera.  If Rivera doesn't sign, this will be the most striking change to the Yankees (on field anyway).  Not having Rivera come in the game in late innings will just be...weird.

The challenge will be finding a role for Farnsworth, Mussina, Igawa and maybe Pavano if they cannot trade them.  Those could be ugly options if the new manager has to blend those guys in.  My guess is Farnsworth can be moved (with the Yankees paying a bunch of $), but the other 3 are ugly contracts.

The good news for New York is that they do have significant young talent to fill in the gaps created by the possible departures of Clemens, Pettitte and Rivera.  Philip Hughes will be in the rotation alongside Chien-Ming Wang, Ian Kennedy and perhaps another young arm.  This will be the most interesting thing to watch.  The Yankees are at a crossroads here.  They can rebuild from within and let young pitchers like Hughes, Kennedy, Tyler Clippard and Matt DeSalvo.  If they do that, it might mean a year off from contention, but this strategy has been known to surprise.  Giving your young guys pt is sometimes the best medicine.  The problem with that idea is that George Steinbrenner might not allow it.

I think the most excitement the Yankees will offer in 2008 will be Joba Chamberlain.  He came up and dominated major league hitters.  He can step in the role of closer, or if Rivera returns, he can be the primary set-up guy, or he can start as he only relieved full time once he was called up the majors.  Only his workload will hold him back in 2008.

The Yankees have clearly shown a willingness and desire to produce home grown talent.  But they've also spent freely in the free agent market in recent years.  I expect NY to try to bring along more talent, but probably continue to spend big on the free agent market.  Gammons also mentioned the Yankees immediately discussed (like 2 hours after they were eliminated) what they could send along with Wang to the Twins in exchange for Johan Santana, who would immediately become the highest paid pitcher in baseball.  So things will change a bit, but with the pressure from above, don't expect the Yankees to become cheap.

Having talked about the Yankees so much, I'm now going to shower.  Unclean, unclean.

October 09, 2007

It's All Over

I just watched Joe Torre's postgame press conference and hearing him refer to the Yankees future as "their future" and not "our future" made me sick. Great job by the fans chanting his name in the 8th when he came out and made the pitching change and he deserves better than this ending.

But, this is the way it will end. In the next few days, I fully expect the Yankees to let him go. After that, who knows what happens. Will Posada and Mo want to play in New York without Joe? Will Pettitte stay if he has to play under a new manager? What's going to happen with A-Rod?

All of those quesions are going to be vital to the 2008 Yankees and while we don't know a lot of the answers right now, I think we can all agree on the overall need. This team has to get younger and has to find a way to get players who are on the way up and not the way down joining the organization. Getting rid of Torre and all of the questions with the roster offer uncertainty but also opportunity. Heading into 2008 we know the Yankees have the biggest resources in the game and they finally have some young pitchers who should anchor the rotation going forward. This is a moment for sadness, but it can also be a moment to cement the foundations of the next dynasty. That is what I will address over the next few days, after I am done mourning.

October 08, 2007

Rocket Out, Villone Back

The Yankees have done the smart move and subtracted Roger Clemens from the roster.  Under the new rules, he now has to miss the ALCS, which he probably would have anyway.  In his place, the Yankees have added Ron Villone.  My understanding is they didn't want to add Kennedy because he isn't with the team and he was away getting married this weekend.  I imagine he will be in the mix if the Yankees make the ALCS.  So, the choice came down to Ramirez, Villone and Britton who were all with the team.  I think Villone is a good move because it gives them a lefty and he can probably go the most innings of anyone in this group.

As for the lineup, Giambi is back to the bench and Mientkiewicz is in.  This is the standard move when Wang is pitching, so it isn't a surprise.  Matsui is the DH again with Damon in left. 

The Yankees have a great chance tonight with Byrd on the mound, talk to you after the game.   

 

October 07, 2007

Still Standing

That was quite a game.  Phil Hughes showed why he is going to be a very, very good starter for the next 10+ years and the Yankees survived a horrible start by Roger Clemens.  Kudos to Damon for a home run that totally turned things around and kudos to Alex Rodriguez for getting two hits to shut everyone up.

Now, the Yankees have some interesting choices to make.  Torre announced the first big one tonight in his postgame press conference, Chien-Ming Wang will start for New York.  Eric Wedge is sticking to Paul Byrd and this is obviously a matchup the Yankees should be able to take advantage of.  

Bigger than that is the decision of what to do with Clemens.  Under the new rules, Clemens can be replaced on the ALDS roster tomorrow, but it would mean he cannot pitch in the ALCS.  If I were the Yankees, I make the move.  The ALCS is something to worry about after Wednesday, go get Kennedy back from his wedding and add him to the roster. 

Tomorrow night should be electric in the Bronx and I can't wait for the game.  Talk to you Monday.   

Advanced Placement

The Red Sox advanced to the ALCS riding the pitching performance of Curt Schilling.  The Angels are a far better team than we saw in the ALDS, but injuries kept them in check.  Despite a line-up that wasn't up to speed, credit has to go to the Red Sox pitching staff for allowing only 3 runs in the series.

Schilling certainly isn't the pitcher he was even 2 years ago.  His velocity tops out at around 90 and his off-speed pitches have lost zip too.  But, he has become a better pitcher as a result instead utilizing placement and change of speed to keep batter off balance.  Not that Schilling was a gun slinger in his prime, rather he has just had to tighten things up a bit this year.  While the results were outstanding, you can tell there might be something wrong with Schilling based on his mound presence.  He takes a ton of time between pitches and doesn't look completely comfortable.  Or maybe he is just taking more time because he knows he has to be more precise.  Or the 3rd, most likely theory is that I'm full of it and don't know what I'm talking about.

Anyway, with an opponent TBD, here is the ALCS schedule.

GameMatchupDayDateTime ETTV
Gm 1TBD @ BOSFriOct. 12TBD FOX
Gm 2TBD @ BOSSatOct. 13TBD FOX
Gm 3BOS @ TBDMonOct. 15TBD FOX
Gm 4BOS @ TBDTueOct. 16TBD FOX
Gm 5*BOS @ TBDThuOct. 18TBD FOX
Gm 6*TBD @ BOSSatOct. 20TBD FOX
Gm 7*TBD @ BOSSunOct. 21TBD FOX
* - if necessary

The best part of today's win was the fact that it gives everyone some time off.  The Red Sox have 4 days off.  The bad news about this win is that Red Sox are now entering an ALCS being televised by Fox.  You know what that means, right?  Yup, Tim McCarver.  At least Brandon Arroyo isn't on the team anymore.

I found some of his doozies on this site.  Here are a few samples:

2004 ALCS, Game 5? Red Sox vs. Yankees . David Ortiz hit a home run into right field.  Tim: "Mt. Everest erupts again!".....too bad Mt. Everest isn't a volcano! 

August 19, 2006 Yankees @ Red Sox.  "Pitching is such a vital part of the game, as far as winning is concerned"

Not to dump on McCarver as having to fill 4 hours of broadcast time would make most of us cry, but I know for a fact there are better options in this world.  My ideal team of course would be Sean McDonough and Jerry Remy.  If others complained that Remy was an active Red Sox broadcaster, then I'd have to say I'd pick...Joe Morgan.  Kidding, seriously, please.  I'd pick, hmmm.  I'm struggling here.

Other than Remy, I can't really stand any of the national options.  I have to assume that any semblance of non-homerism displayed by my announcers cannot be tolerated by me.  I guess that means McCarver never had a chance with me.  Anyway, excluding Don Orsillo and Jerry Remy, who would your ideal broadcast team be for the ALCS (you have to pick from living options)?  Let us know your pick by leaving a comment.

Guess Who's Playing....

Here's the lineup

Damon LF
Jeter SS
Abreu RF
Rodriguez 3B
Posada C
Giambi 1B
Matsui DH
Cano 2B
Cabrera CF

Torre is trying to get the offense going which is a very smart move at this point.  Back after the game. 

The Lion Roars Again

Just when we were ready to paint George out of the picture, he proves he is back.  In this interview he shows the bluster that made him hated the world around.  Among the highlights:

1- On Joe Torre's job status- "His job is on the line. I think we're paying him a lot of money. He's the highest-paid manager in baseball, so I don't think we'd take him back if we don't win this series."

2- On the bugs the other night- "The umpire was full of [expletive].  He won't umpire our games anymore." (Note, he is retiring after the playoffs)

3- On A-Rod- "I think we'll re-sign him. I think he's going to have a good run the rest of the [postseason]. I think he realizes New York is the place to be, the place to play. A lot of this [postseason] is laying on his shoulders, you know, but I think he's up to it." 

So there you have it, he's back and full of piss and vinegar.  It isn't getting into a fight in an elevator, but it is vintage George.  The sad thing is, he thinks this will fire up the team and not distract them at all.  <sigh> 

October 06, 2007

Now What?

The Yankees will talk about taking it one game at a time, which is all fine and good, but they need to figure out how to win three games in a row.  So, while they focus on winning tomorrow, let's do a potentially pointless exercise and talk about what happens if they win Sunday. 

First thing I do tomorrow if I am Joe Torre, after putting Giambi in the lineup for Game 3, is announce that Chien-Ming Wang will start Game 4 and Andy Pettite would start a potential Game 5.  Ok, he doesn't need to announce it until after they win, but Wang should be sent home early tomorrow night to get some sleep.

Yes, he threw 94 pitches Thursday, but tired sinkerball pitchers are better than rested ones and who cares if he only gives you four or five innings?  If the Yankees get to Monday, they will need to bulld on the momentum of Sunday's win.  Who gives you a better chance for that, tired Wang or rested Mussina?  Obviously, you know my vote and I hope Torre realizes it too.  I think starting Mussina in Game 4 down 2-1 would be very similar to pitching Wright in the same spot last year.  You are hoping it will go well, but in your heart you have serious doubts.  He can relieve when Wang gets tired, but keep him out of things until that point.

Secondly, if you get to Game 4, you have to wrap you head around the idea that Luis Vizcaino isn't the third guy out of the pen right now.  They may not use Joba and Mo tomorrow at all which would be great (er, great if they won) but if they do, they probably need to figure out some other bullpen combos for Monday.  Corey suggested in the comments of another post Farnsworth ahead of Vizcaino right now which I endorse, but I will go one step further and say throw Hughes in front of Farnsworth.  

Yes, I know he relieved for the first time Thursday and no, it isn't fair to ask him to do it.  But, if the Yankees are holding a one-run lead late in the game and Joba and Mo can't go, who would you rather see?  I wouldn't ask him to enter an inning in progress, but if it's the start of the 7th and I need someone to protect a lead, he's my guy.  If he fails, so be it, I don't think a bad relief appearance will hurt his psyche since he is a starter and the experience just might help him.   

Those are my moves for the future, as for tomorrow night, other than giving Giambi a crack, my biggest thought is to get guys moving on the basepaths.  Yes, the Yankees haven't had many chances, but other than Abreu's steal in Game 2, they haven't done much on the basepaths in this series.  I am not just asking for straight steals, but hit-and-run plays as well.  (BTW- I am not asking for a plethora of bunts which Carey, Gwynn and Brenley all seem in favor of.  I still don't understand how they can keep questioning Torre's decision to let Jeter swing away in Game 1.  It didn't work, but I think Jeter has proven he usually delivers a big hit in a big spot and I am not going to second-guess that call- now, maybe if it had been A-Rod j/k)

Well, that's my collective "wisdom" what do you guys think they should do?  As for me, I will be posting again tomorrow when the lineups are out and then during the game in some form and after in a longer form.  

Manny, Mr October?

Great win late last night (early this morning).  Despite a disappointing performance by Daisuke Matsuzaka, the Red Sox stayed in the game only to win it on a walk off 3-run shot by Manny Ramirez (edit - Manny's first walk-off home run since 1996, regular season or playoffs!).

Along with Manny, credit is due to Javier Lopez (0.1 IP), Manny Delcarmen (1.1 IP), Hideki Okajima (1.1 IP) and Jonathan Papelbon (1.1 IP) for not allowing a hit over the last 4.1 IP of the game.  With Matsuzaka allowing 7 hits and 3 walks in only 4.2 IP, having a bullpen to come in and shut down the opposition was huge.

Back to Manny, for whatever reason, I just don't think of him as being clutch, or perhaps better said, being the savior.  Based on my observations (i.e. I have no #s to back this up), he can produce runs early in a game and in the middle of the game, but isn't necessarily one you count on to bring home a win in the last at bat.  That role has been reserved for David Ortiz, but game 2 was Manny's game.  K-Rod tried to sneak a fastball by Manny but couldn't.  Manny sent it up, over and out of Fenway.  Huge.

Another benefit of Manny doing what he did was it will not give pause to the Angels and hopefully later competition that perhaps pitching around Ortiz (4 walks in game 2) isn't such a good idea.  Manny put his foot down on that strategy, at least for now.  When asked by Sean McAdam after the game about pitching around Ortiz to face Manny, Angel manager Mike Scoscia said "it's pick your poison" and that's exactly why you want a core of really talented and dangerous hitters in your line-up, to make things tough on the opponent.

Now, enjoy this win but understand the Angels are still a really good team and are also really good at home (54-27).  One of the major storyline to watch is the status of Vladmir Guerrero.  He left the game after getting hit on the left shoulder.  I was stunned that he didn't stick it out given the magnitude of the game.  He must really be hurt.

Curt Schilling is going in game 3 against Jered Weaver.  Weaver (13-7, 3.91/1.39) you will recall allowed 6 ER over 4.1 IP in his last game against Boston.  In his career against Boiston, he is 0-2 with a 4.70/1.35 in 23 IP.  In his career, Schilling is 6-2, 3.67/1.11 against the Angels.

Normally I'd have a bunch of opinions to share about what could have been handled better, but after game 2, I don't have much to say.  Perhaps starting Matsuzaka was a mistake, but they managed through it with a W.

October 05, 2007

The Sweet Agony

I am totally exhausted, emotionally spent, that is why I love baseball.  If only the end result had been different.

Boy was I wrong about Carmona, what a game he pitched and to all the A-Rod bashers out there leave him alone.  The Yankees are hitting .121 in this series, it isn't just A-Rod who isn't hititng.  In fact, other than Abreu, who is?

The mayfly invasion was bizzare to say the least and I think it is fair to say it bothered Joba.  Unfortunately, those are the breaks and now the Yankees have to regroup.  Torre said in his postgame press conference that he isn't thinking of shaking things up yet.  Jake Westbrook will help, but the Yankees better consider adding Giambi to the lineup to get out of this funk.  Just keep in mind, Westbrook and Byrd are very different from Sabathia and Carmona.  Things look bad now, but they aren't dead yet.

Back tomorrow when I can think again.   

Time For Andy

Let's face it Andy Pettitte in Game 2 was Joe Torre's security blanket pre-2004 and that's why he is pitching in this spot tonight.  You really only need six innings from him because Joe won't hesitate to go to Joba and Mo for the last three innings.  Win and the Yankees are in good shape.  Lose and they are in trouble.  Interestingly, the Yankees are going with the same lineup as last night, but flip-flopping Matsui and Posada and Mientkiewicz and Cabrera.  This makes little sense to me as Matsui looks lost and I don't think he can protect A-Rod right now.  Personally, I would have gone with Giambi at DH and let Matsui rest.

The Yankees had their chances last night and didn't get hits when they would have mattered.  I think Carmona gives them plenty of chances early, will they capitalize?  

Back after the game 

October 04, 2007

Live Blogging Game 1

Just figured I would add my observations in real time for tonight's game.

6:42pm- Which is worse, the fact that there is an umpire specifically assigned to the Right Field Line who didn't make that call or the joke of a replay by TBS? At least they conferred and got it right.

6:46pm-Great at bat by Abreu, from 1-2 to a walk and now comes a big at bat for A-Rod

6:49pm-I shouldn't read too much into it, but I think A-Rod doesn't draw that walk in the past.

6:52pm- I am really starting to loathe TBS and we are only five batters in. They start the game on TNT because the Phillies game runs over and they can't stick with it past 6:52? I mean was anyone going to really watch the last five minutes of Law and Order? Wait for the commercial break next time guys!

6:55pm- That's a huge lift for the Indians getting out of that jam.

7:14pm- That was an ugly inning from Wang. Hitting the first guy and then after getting the double play he just struggled. And worst of all, Kenny "Gary knows what he is talking about" Lofton with the big hit.

7:19pm- Sabathia looks like he is going to give the Yankees plenty of chances- a four pitch walk to Cano!?

7:21pm- Cabrera should have yelled "HA"

7:25pm- That is not a good inning on the scoreboard, but they made Sabathia throw 17 pitches. That's 50 through two. They keep that up and he won't pitch six.

7:27pm- Are you really telling me that TBS or MLB didn't have enough money to buy www.october.com and instead had to settle for www.actober.com. What the heck is actober? Sounds like a theater company tryout.

7:33pm- Nice throw by Posada, he has become a very good catcher since Pena came to town.

7:48pm- A-Rod just missed that one.

7:52pm- Yankees need a spark and soon. That home run could be the nail in the coffin.

7:53pm- LeBron's will probably get booed at home wearing that hat.

8:03pm- Thank you Cano

8:22pm- Was it Mientkiewicz's ankle or is Joe just realizing he needs to try and exploit the matchup with Sabathia?

8:26pm- Time for Captain October to do something

8:30pm- I agree with not bunting there, Jeter is too good a hitter to lay it down.

8:32pm- And Abreu picks him up, now it's time for A-Rod.

8:33pm- I know it sounds crazy, but considering all the postseason stuff with A-Rod, I would have made him beat me there. Wedge is playing it by the book, but I would have challenged him.

8:36pm- That was some pitching by Sabathia down 3-0 and then a strikeout. On the plus side, he is over 100 now.

8:38pm- Score one for Eric Wedge, now the Yankees need Wang to keep it at one-run.

8:47pm- That is just a terrible start by Wang.

8:56pm- Is it me or does Ohlendorf even look like Mussina when he pitches?

9:00pm- He really does look like Mussina. Ok, bad joke, but what exactly did Guidry say to him that led to belt-high fastball?

9:10pm- The way things are going, I am glad hockey season started. Check that, Rangers are losing too 2-1.

9:15pm- This is looking over. The Indians are smart to use their top bullpen guys to get outs here, don't let the Yankees get things going.

9:18pm- You know I really like Frank Calliendo. The guy is incredibly talented, but I don't think I can take an entire of October of his promos.

9:23pm- At some point you have to get Ohlendorf out of there. I know you need to soak up innings, but you don't want to let a young pitcher take too big of a beating. I think you go Veras soon and then let Farnsworth pitch the 8th.

9:28pm- I guess Kenny Lofton never got over the way Torre used him in 2004. He is killing the Yankees tonight.

9:35pm- Hockey update: Rangers 5 Florida 2, Drury has three points in his MSG debut.

9:37pm- Interesting that they are using Perez for a 2nd inning with an 8-run lead. I assume this will disqualify him from pitching tomorrow night which helps NY.

9:41pm- That guy is nasty.

9:45pm- Phil Hughes now? Why?

9:56pm- Matsui looks lost right now, Torre has to think about either Giambi or Duncan for Game 2.

And I think that will be it for the live blog. I have some things to do and even Joe Borrowski couldn't blow an 8-run lead in one inning. Could he?

Series Prediction

Back in April I picked the Yankees to win this series in four games.   (Yup, I picked Cleveland-Yanks in the ALDS, of course I also had the Twins winning the AL Central and while I did pick the Phillies and Cubs in the playoffs, my Dodgers and Mets picks didn't make it.  On the plus side, my World Series of Phillies-Yankees is certainly possible)

I would stick to that if the Yankees did what I said in my original post "Hughes in the fourth game seals it".  The way I see it going down is as follows:

Game 1: Sabathia quiets the Yankees' bats and Wang struggles, giving up runs early. 

Game 2: Pettitte pitches a beaut and Yankees pound Carmona.

Game 3: Clemens guts out six and Joba and Rivera carry the Yankees to a 2-1 series lead.

Game 4: Moose is rocked and Cleveland evens the series.

Game 5: Torre goes with experience and Pettitte starts Game 5 instead of Wang.  It works and Pettitte outduels Sabathia with A-Rod driving in the winning runs.  

Let's face it, Sabathia is scary and I think he will pitch very well today.  If the Yankees did get Game 1, it would be a huge boost to their chances.  But, apart from Sabathia, the other Indians pitchers don't scare me.  Carmona had a great year, but I think the Yankees will hit him, as for Byrd and Westbrook, they should shell them.  I think Pettitte really proves his worth in his two starts and Clemens will figure out a way to get it done.  I still hope they realize that Moose isn't the answer for Game 4, but I am resigned to the fact that Hughes will probably enter that game in the third inning when Mussina has given up 5 runs.  

It should be a very good series and I imagine it will turn on a couple of key plays.  

Back after the game.   

Off and Running - 1-0 Red Sox lead in ALDS

Josh Beckett looked great in winning game one last night.  A complete game shutout is not something you expect in the playoffs.  He performance essentially gave the bullpen an additional 2 days off on top of their initial 2 day rest.

I was fortunate to be at Fenway last night and noticed Francona had many different relievers warm up last night.  I saw Hideki Okajima and Eric Gagne for certain (lousy seats yield poor scouting results) and think I saw 2 others warming up.  I assume Francona did this to keep these guys sharp.

More good news was seeing Kevin Youkilis hitting a home run in his first ever playoff at bat.  Additionally, David Ortiz got off to a great start hitting a 2-run shot to deep right.

All in all, little to complain about in very convincing victory.  But one game doesn't establish much in the playoffs so Daisuke Matsuzaka has his work cut out on Friday as the Angels aren't likely to roll over again.  Game 2 starts at 8:30pm Friday night and will match Matsuzaka against Kelvim Escobar.  Matsuzaka has never faced the Angels before and Escobar didn't face the Red Sox in this past regular season.  Escobar lifetime against the Red Sox is an underwhelming 6-7, 4.64 ERA, 1.44 WHIP in 99 IP.  He has struck out 91 over that span.  At Fenway, Escobar is 4-3, 4.30 ERA, 1.40 WHIP in 58.2 IP with 57 K's.  So not terrible, but not great.

I leave you with this, I was surprised the Angels only mustered up 4 hits last night.  They never got anything going.  What do you think, was this just complete domination by Beckett or are the Angels just not that good an offensive club?  Or maybe both?

October 03, 2007

Who Do We Root For?

Was anyone else confused tonight? You see Boston playing in the playoffs and you automatically root against them, right? Well tonight I wasn't so sure. I don't know if the Yankees can beat the Angels. For whatever reason, they seem to have our number. On the other hand, I think we can beat Boston. Yes, their pitching is very good, but I think we have a better shot against them than the Angels.

So, while I want a five-game series with multiple injuries on both sides (nothing career threatening, just something that keeps a player out for October) I think I want Boston to win. Is that wrong? I am going to go shower because I feel dirty.

Roster Surprise

The Yankees have announced their playoff roster and I am shocked by the fact that Ron Villone didn't make it. That means the Yankees won't have a lefty arm in the bullpen and considering that several of the Indians hit much better against righties than lefties, it is a curious deicsion. I guess the Yankees didn't view Villone as a guy to call in in a big spot against a lefty hitter. In addition Ramirez didn't make the team, as the Yankees have put both Ohlendorf and Veras on the roster with Sardinha as an extra bat.

The fact that Veras and Ohlendorf made the playoff roster after pitching 15 innings combined shows you how highly the Yankees think of them. Unlike years past, this team is willing to take chances and I can't argue with that approach, I just wonder if it would have been better to have a lefty in the pen instead of both Ohlendorf and Veras.

In addition, the lineup for Game 1 has been announced. It is the standard lineup of recent weeks

Damon- LF
Jeter-SS
Abreu-RF
A-Rod-3B
Matsui-DH
Posada-C
Cano-2B
Cabrera-CF
Mientkiewicz-1B

Hard to argue with the idea of Mientkiewicz with Wang on the mound, getting good infield defense is critical. I was curious to see if Shelly Duncan would make the cut since they are facing a tough lefty, but I think Joe wanted to keep Abreu in there. Abreu hit .262/.329/.349 against LHP, so I would have gone with Shelly.

October 02, 2007

Round 1 - Red Sox vs. Angels

Earlier today I posted the roster and rotation for the Red Sox in the upcoming ALDS series against the Angels.  I didn't get into my feelings on things.  Well, here it goes.

I have no problem with Josh Beckett getting things started.  He was the best starter for the Red Sox hands down and has a legit shot at the AL Cy Young award.  But, I think starting Daisuke Matsuzaka game 2 and Curt Schilling makes little sense.  Here's why:

game 2 @ Fenway

Matsuzaka home - 92.2 IP, 4.86 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 75 K, 30 BB, 2.50 K/BB ratio.

Matsuzaka away - 112.0 IP, 4.02, 1.31 WHIP, 126 K, 50 BB, 2.52 K/BB ratio.

The 19.1 more IP on the road yielded 50 more K's (and 20 more BB's).

game 3 @ Anaheim

Schilling home - 82.0 IP, 4.06 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 61 K, 12 BB, 5.08 K/BB ratio.

Schilling away - 69.0 IP, 3.65 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 40 K, 11 BB, 3.64 K/BB ratio.

Ok, so far not so bad, Matsuzaka was better on the road, but Schilling was also better on the road.  So?

8-2 record, 109.1 IP, 2.09 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 104 K's, 22 BB, 4.73 K/BB ratio.  Those are Schilling's career postseason numbers.  There are few better starters in the history of baseball than Schilling.  Daisuke, through no fault of his own, has no MLB postseason history.  Even though Schilling is of age, I still think they should have gone with him in game 2.

Now, before I get accused of manipulating the facts, let me share with you that Matsuzaka was 8-4 at home and 7-8 on the road despite his stats and Schilling was 4-3 at home and 5-5 on the road.  So by record only, the decision as it stands is correct, but we all know w/l records can be misleading.

Now that I've gotten off my chest, I think there is more than meets the eye here as Schilling himself said he was not as strong as he used to be and a long Red Sox half inning meant difficulties for him as he didn't warm up as quickly.  His velocity is down and he is not what he used to be, but old horses don't lose it over night and we've seen inspired performances on more than one occasion from Schilling in his career.  The Red Sox must be aware of some specific issues and feel that asking Schilling to step up twice in a 5 gamer is not wise.  At 14 years younger, Daisuke will get the call in game 2.

Time will tell.

All The Best Love The Yanks

Not that it matters, but here is one Cleveland athlete who will be rooting for the Yankees this week.  While the best player in the NBA is a good get, this is my personal favorite.

Red Sox Roster

The Red Sox are going with many of the usual suspects, but there are a few interesting selections (and one omission).

The usual starting 9 is on the roster with Doug Mirabelli, Jacoby Ellsbury, Eric Hinske, Bobby Kielty and Alex Cora making the roster as did 3rd string catcher Kevin Cash.  Room was afforded by omitting Tim Wakefield from the roster to allow for Cash.  Wakefield, according the Red Sox, isn't healthy enough to help the squad, especially in a series where only 3 starters will be needed.

Jon Lester, Jonathan Papelbon, Hideki Okajima, Eric Gagne, Mike Timlin, Manny Delcarmen and Javier Lopez are in the bullpen with Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Curt Schilling handling the starting duties.

One other notable exclusion was Julian Tavarez.  Too bad b/c he was fairly helpful earlier in the season and provides endless entertainment..

A few additional notes:

It'll be Beckett, Matsuzaka and Schilling for a rotation.  That means Schilling only once in this series.

GAME 1: ANGELS @ RED SOX 10/3, 6:30 PM ET

GAME 2: ANGELS @ RED SOX 10/5, 8:30 PM ET

GAME 3: RED SOX @ ANGELS 10/7, 3:00 PM ET

GAME 4: RED SOX @ ANGELS 10/8, 9:30 PM ET

GAME 5: ANGELS @ RED SOX 10/10, 8:30 PM ET

ESPN weighs in on the Red Sox.  They also weigh in on the series itself.  ESPN's Tim Kurkjian tries to answer some questions.  CNNSI's Tom Verducci gives his take on the AL playoffs.  FoxSports Ken Rosenthal gives us his Red Sox/Angels preview.

Don't forget to vote in our poll below.

October 01, 2007

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We Have Playoff Times

MLB has announced the starting time for the Yankees and Red Sox series and let's just say they are weird. 

The Yankees will play at 6:30 on Thursday, the middle game of the day, 5pm on Friday (1st game of the day), 6:30pm on Sunday (3rd game of the day), 6pm Monday (1st game) and 5pm Wednesday (1st game) This makes sense because they will try and put the Boston series later in the day since they are playing a west coast team.

 

Boston plays 6:30pm Wednesday (middle game), 8:30pm Friday (late game), 3pm Sunday (2nd game), 9:30pm Monday (late game), 8:30pm Wedneday (late game) I suspect they play earlier than the Yankees on Sunday because the Jets play the Giants in New York on Sunday and TBS wants to avoid putting the Yankees on at the same time.

And, for those of you in the NYC area, good news, TBS HD will be available with most cable providers.   

The Year That Was

In March, I think most of us would have said 95 wins would be the minimum needed to get to the playoffs in 2007 and we were almost dead on. The Red Sox won 96 which took the division, ditto Cleveland and the Yankees and Angels won 94 which got them into the playoffs too. We will reflect on all of that later, but for now, let's review 2007.

Let's start with the biggest surprises and I think you have to say there are three big ones, Posada, A-Rod and Joba. Let's start with the hitters, if you thought A-Rod would turn in the best offensive season by a Yankee in 50 years and Posada would turn in one of the best ever offensive seasons by a catcher over 35, you should head to Vegas. What that duo did is amazing and as impressive as A-Rod's year was it overshadowed an amazing one by Posada. Jorge hit .338 and his OBP and SLG%'s were career highs. That doesn't usually happen at 35 and the Yankees have to be careful when negotiating a new deal with him.

Joba came literally out of nowhere and transformed the bullpen. I wasn't a fan of the move at the time and boy was I wrong. Let's just hope the Yankees are smart enough to put the kid back into the rotation next year.

Disappointments? Well Carl Pavano's continued fragility comes to mind, but let's put Kei Igawa at the top of that list. It certainly looks like the Yankees threw away the $26 million posting fee, but maybe they can trade him in the offseason. Giambi and Damon had bad years and Kyle Farnsworth continues to underwhelm.

Big kudos have to go to Torre and Cashman for getting this team to the playoffs. Torre deserves huge credit for keeping a steady hand throughout an awful start and refusing to panic. 2007 showed that Cashman's rebuilding of the farm system is real and he wisely chose to stand pat at the trade deadline. The Yankees are still not a young team, but Cashman has at least made it plausible that the Yankees will rebuild on the fly.

So, 94-68 and a 13th-straight playoff spot. Now the real fun starts.