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I think the glass seems half full more than half emtpy at this point Peter. I can say that the three amigos are probably not one month miracles based on their records in the minors and some of their major's appearances. And I don't think that Rasner is a fluke either. My sense is that we have a potentially great core in these four and Wang ain't lousy either. Plus? we seem to have some good arms in the minors waiting in the wings. Andy can give us this season and Moose still has a few surprises left in his arm - good AND bad surprises.

The bats seem also to be waking up a bit - esp. Giambi and Cano. A-Rod should track to a "decent" year and Jeter will be Jeter. Abreu is a decent bat as well and Matsui is as clutch as it gets. Melky? He's a hot/cold as it gets at the plate.

I think the per game run production escalates from this point forward - and the ERA's drop at the same time. It's a mathematical formula for going north of .500 in the W/L column. Question is - how far north.

The bench worries me, the bullpen worries me, Posada worries me - but hey, this was a transition year at the start and transitions take more than a month to complete.

Hitting: A-Rod's return appears to have had a bigger impact than I expected. It's hard for me to believe that a lineup featuring the likes of Damon, Jeter, Abreu, Giambi and Cano needed his presence so much. Then again, it could just be that these guys don't get going until the weather gets warmer, and by a happy coincidence, A-Rod returned just as the weather took a turn for the better . . .

Starters: Wang's in a slump right now. When all is said and done, he'll have his 16-20 wins. Andy, I believe, will also settle down. He'll be good for 14-16 wins. Mussina is going to be an adventure, every start. Sometimes he'll eke out a win, sometimes he'll get clobbered. One of the sportswriters wrote the other day that mathematically, he's on pace to win 20 games. I don't think so. The Yanks need at least one "Moose Rule": no more starts against the Red Sox, no exceptions. Kennedy is young, so he's going to take his lumps. But I have to believe that he can and will be better than he was before his brief demotion. But does that translate, say, to a 4.50 ERA or a 5.50 ERA? A lot is riding on the answer to that question. Hughes is better than he was before his demotion; we all saw it last year. Again, he's young and so he, too, is going to take his lumps. Joba is a big question, obviously. It's been said on this site before: no one has any idea if he will be a successful starter. We've been unbelievably spoiled by the numbers he's put up since he arrived on the scene last year. Inevitably, it raises our hopes to unrealistic heights. Just as inevitably, it sets us up for disappointment. I, for one, think he will be relatively successful from the outset (i.e., relative to other starting pitchers at this early stage in their careers). But once again, we're going to need to understand that he, too, is going to take his lumps. Rasner has been a pleasant surprise, to put it mildly. My head tells me that there is simply no way he can keep this up over the course of the season, and that the league will figure him out. My heart, however, keeps whispering in my ear "Aaron Small. Shawn Chicon. 2005." He seems to be level-headed. I think he has the right mix of determination, tenacity and maturity to ride this wave for a while.

Relievers: I have no faith in Farnsworth, not much more in Hawkins. I'm not sure yet what to make of Ohlendorf. I think having some patience with him will be well rewarded, at least in the long run. Ramirez is, I think, going to be at least OK, probably better. Mo is Mo (talk about spoiling us . . .). The Yanks will blow some leads that wouldn't otherwise have been blown had Joba stayed in the pen, and of course these are going to be demoralizing. But Joba was underutilized, as the Yanks weren't getting him many leads to protect. I am cautiously optimistic that when all is said and done, the improvement to the rotation will more than compensate for the degradation of the bullpen resulting from Joba's change of role. I am also hopeful that later in the year, the Yanks will have at least some decent kids to call up from the minors who will be able to contribute.

Rest of the league: I hate to concede the division at this early stage, but until the Yanks prove otherwise, realistically, it's hard for me to consider them being in the same class as the Red Sox. Yes, the Red Sox have not gotten off to as good a start as last year, but they're tough, resilient, grinders, and Beckett is a stud. So I am setting my sights on the wild card. The Yanks are fortunate that this year most teams that they considered their main competition started off fairly poorly: Tigers, Indians, Mariners. I'm frankly not worried about the Tigers. I think the Indians are going to hit better. Their starters have really hit their stride, so if they do start hitting, they're going to take the Central. The Mariners have been just terrible. I think the Blue Jays will continue to be what they've been: a good pitch/no hit team that will finish a few games above .500. I think the As will continue to be a surprise, and that they'll finish above .500, but that they shouldn't pose an insurmountable obstacle. I'm not yet sure what to make of the White Sox. I certainly don't think the Rays are going to win the division, but they have, by far, the best pitching they've ever had, and they've been a good hitting team for a few years, so they are not to be taken lightly. When all is said and done, I like to believe the Yanks can get past them for a wild card spot.

Prognosis for 2008: We have a fighting chance at a wild card spot, but the Yanks will have to earn it. I don't see us getting past the Indians, assuming they hit well enough to make the playoffs. I'm not sure we can get past the Angels, either, considering all the trouble they've given us the past few years.

Future: From everything I've been reading, I think we have every reason to be optimistic about the pitching prospects throughout the farm system. There is enough talent there that the odds are that some good pitching talent will come out of it. I think Cashman is on the right track. I fervently hope they don't give a stupid contract to Sabathia -- he's got the wrong "body type". I worry about the position players. There's not enough in the pipeline. Who is our catcher in 2010? Posada? Or is he DHing by then? How about 1B? Texeira? Maybe, but it will take a stupid contract to sign him. SS? I don't know what the Yanks are going to do with Jeter long-term (LF?), but I'm not sure I like the idea of him playing SS in 2010. RF? Who knows? LF? If not Jeter, who? I hate to think we have our pitching all straightened out in 2-3 years, only to find we can't hit a lick.

My opinion has now "hardened" a bit more about Rasner - he's a valuable addition to this team. And yep, the bullpen still worries me ...

My patience with Ohlendorf. He hasn't performed consistently since he's come up and when he's bad he can't get through an inning. Hawkins' is the same. I'd rather send O down and Hawkins out and throw some shite against the wall hoping something sticks.

Also, why can't the Yanks field behind Kennedy?

Yep, Hawkins and Ross are not holding things together well for us. Prob time for a call to Scranton (or lower) to see who might be avaialble. Like we've each said, the bullpen is a worry.

Now Ike is heading down with a lat problem? Ugh ...