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A Defense Of Swisher

Nick Swisher has been a frustrating player to watch this season.  For all the good he does with the bat, he goes into lengthy slumps and his defense in right can be frightening to watch.  Spurred on by some comments on various posts on this site, I decided to take a deeper look into his defensive play.  Here is what I found out.

Let me say up front that defense is a tough nut ot crack.  There are a lot of different ways to look at it, but I find the "Revised Zone Rating" method that Hardball Times uses to be the best.   Using their methodology, the average rightfielder mades 87% of the plays in his "zone" in 2007.

Swisher is well above-average in this category, making plays on 93.3% of the balls hit to his area.  Just for comparison sake, I looked at Abreu's defense in 2008 and found that he made only 87.2% of the plays in his zone.  Of further interest, Siwsher has made 31 "out of zone" plays in right this year- basically balls that he probably shouldn't get to.  Abreu made only a total of 32 all year in 2008. (I also compared Teixeria's defense in 2009 with Giambi's in 2008 and found that Teixeira made 80.8% of the plays compared to Giambi's 67.9%.)

While Swisher covers enough ground, it is his arm that is a weakness.  To date, he has only thrown out 1 runner.  This is a consistent problem for Nick, he only threw out 3 runners in 2007 and 2008 respectively. 

So, my conclusions are that despite his arm, Swisher makes the plays he should and when you factor in his bat, he is an above-average rightfielder.   

Comments

Peter.

I can't dispute your numbers; they are what they are. But you also indicate that he can be "frightening to watch" and WOW do I agree. When the ball is hit to right I don't know what to expect - is he going to completely miss the ball with his glove on an easy one (yep, he did * exactly * that recently) or is he going to make an incredibly great catch and climb the wall to slow his momentum?

Which play are we going to see this time Nick? I groan, say "oh crap" and then wait for the play every time I see a ball heading out that way. It's an adventure watching the guy.

About his arm? Yeah, you're certainly right, it's bad, almost as bad as Damon's arm. Noodle arm in right, another noodle in left, cannon in center with Damon, Melky and Swisher in the OF.

Peter I am impressed, you should be in the forensic business. thank you for taking your time out. I am a percentage and #s guy myself, but then you must factor in variables, are those #s just as a RFer? or CF? two positions you can't compare and ,the ball travels to right differently ,tough to make ajustment from CF to Rf maybe thats his problem, last night we were a few inches from losing Melky for awhile, if his knee would have hit him in the neck or head, melky would be done. with all respect for your data, because I have been reading your post on this site for a long time, I just have not posted. I find you and the other posters very logical and , a base for great info, You should make your comparasion to a top RF, not abreu ,I hated abreu out there, the guy feels he is above getting dirty or stubbing his toe I was elated to see him go and get far less free $s.But peter Nick swisher is one of the worst Right fielders I have ever seen, he is better than abreu because his heart is in the game, and is not a all" about me guy".How much does he make this year and what will he make next? i don't have the # but if you know can you please post.Again we have two outfielders who can't catch or throw damon is not above this same feelings i have did you see damon last night even maddon was laughing. he is a LLer out there. we can;t carry both no clue guys. VS good teams it will show up more, look what crawford did a triple, Nick didn't go hard after that ball and he knows he cant throw, triple not double.can we keep giving teams like angle redsox detroit exta outs in the playoffs ??We will rue the day, I still see Bubba and shefield in right center VS angles cost us a WS trip.Peter our eyes see what they see, sometimes our heart tell us we need glasses

Mitchell, It was the damon and abreu last year, now its swisher and damon, remember paul oniel out there? how many games did he save arm and glove? How do we get to cashman and tell him markakis is the answer out there for the next 8 years..and can hit behind Arod.. speaking of which, what happened to this guy? he can't hit a 88 90 mph fast ball down the middle/ i think he has been taking too many night cruises up the 'Hudson". Maybe they should give him a few night rest in the bahamas. it is not his hip ,he steals some bases ,his ability to zone pitches is off.every first pitch was down the middle last night. They are talking about bring Ajx up and giving him a shot , but I would not take him from his natural position CF and put him in Lf or Rf let him be comfortable melky has played the corners before and has done well. Ajax will have enough pressure so don't change is comfort level.

I should have added in the post that overall the Yankees defense is very good this year. When you look at the percentage of balls in play they turn into outs it is currently 70.3%- sixth in MLB. last year it was 68.2- 25th in MLB. A lot of that is Teixeira, but Swisher deserves some credit too.

And BWP, great line about "the Hudson" and Markakis is at 88.8%

Hi BWP.

Swisher makes $5.3MM this year then $6.75MM next. A good website for you is http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/

And yep, you're right, Abreu was decent except whenever the play involved dirt and walls. ;-)

I think this is Damon's last year in the OF for us and I expect Swisher will not be an everyday guy for us next year either - or maybe not this year if we can bring in an arm and an outfielder in the next few days - or we get a chance to see Ajax.

And A-Rod seems distracted, but, in all honesty, I would be also. LOL.

The more interesting question is what the outfield looks like next year -- Cabrera, Gardner, Swisher??? Does Nady come back? Does Damon re-sign? Does Austin Jackson come up? Is Matsui gone as DH as well as outfielder? Is it time for Jeter to move to the outfield?

Much as like Cabrera and Gardner, they are going to need some bigger hitters out there, and Swisher is not the guy to anchor the outfield.

I'd re-sign Damon as OF/DH; rotate Cabrera and Gardner in the OF; and go with Nady and Swisher in RF. I don't see any sure-thing great outfielders coming to the Yankees next year and they will probably have to meet their needs internally.

Corey - Nady probably wouldn't be ready until mid-season the earliest after his recent surgery. He is a FA at this season's end. Can't count on him being back in 2010. I would think twice before re-signing him unless the deal was slanted sharply toward the club.

Damon? I think he would make a decent DH if he takes a short deal, which he probably wouldn't do - as Peter has indicated. Matsui probably has to be let go. He's a pure hitter with really bad knees who has a hard time getting down the basepaths and can't run well enuf to play the OF.

With no additions, I see the 4 being Melky, Gardner, Ajax with Swisher as number 4 - although I am probably in the minority of guys who would rather see Melky than Swisher in the OF. And those first three are lightweights in the power department. I think, however, that Cashman will be a buyer in 2010 for a FA outfielder - or two. Some decent names will be coming up.

Great data Peter. Just confirms my positive opinion on Swisher and he is cheaper than I thought. Personally, I like Swisher as DH next year, I think the bat is good value and production for the back of the order. As for the OF next year, I can certainly see Ajax being given a chance and someone being brought in via FA or a trade. Nady won't be back and I'd put the odds as long on Damon staying for less.

Tim-

I think DH next year should be a mix of A-Rod, Swisher, Jeter and Posada. Not sure on the percentages, but the Yankees would be smart to keep that spot open and not tie themselves to another year of Matsui.

Peter, I feel exactly the same way, with of course without swisher, it could be a great spot to rotate, rest our vets key players. if they decide to take damon back at below abreu rate , i would let damon go but i think he carries weight with the office, i believe he spoke with the free agents to help get them here. but Firm ,NO matsui, no nady, no pettite ,no molina ,no hinske, find homes for marte, swisher, there has to be 40 to 50 mil on the table to find a # 1 or #2 starter quality, and fit him in the rotation, then if joba stays strong we will have 4 # 1 or 2 starters, then go sign a bonafid corner out fielder. Give Ajax a shot like they gave melky and gardner these past years. you will have 4 guys. with guys off the bench that can fly. all young ones. and save a ton of mils.. oh and don't tender wang , what does he get another 5mil.. i said he would never again finish a full year..what do you guys think?

I agree completely on that at DH next year. We will need to give Arod, Posada and Jeter AB's there. There is no room for Matsui and Damon.

BWP- You have to give some love to Swisher tonight, right?

And I agree with Peter on DH for next year. Swisher, as I've said, I see very good value for production.

Yes Peter I yield to you and Nick very clutch on a real hard throwing guy who was on a roll. showed heart.. did you pick up on what i said about arod not swinging at balls right down the middle he did tonight and in the ninth inn. what is he looking for, everyone knows he is getting fastballs in the zone , maybe he really should sit for two games in a row, last time he came out strong.. tim good evening i think you are a sox fan? if you are how about trading either ellsbury or bay for swisher? Peter I hope you prove me wrong about nick..i really do i have a friend who feels like you and we have had nick talks from the day we got him..I don't remember me being a super scout so i will yield to you and root harder for nick, but is he a true CF or RFer? He almost ran into melky again tonight , which makes me think he was a cf guy they are use to going after anything they can .. In my baseball days i played CF thats why i am so critical about outfield play. have a good night guys..oh peter thanks for that site about salaries..


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