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Now What?

So we know that Granderson is coming to New York and Pettitte is coming back.  Where do the Yankees go from here?  It seems reasonable to assume that at most they have one more "big" move left.  By big I mean Damon, Matsui, Doc or Lackey and that's it.  It's one of those four, I don't think they are suddenly going to try and sign Jason Bay. 

Start with the lineup.  Right now, you have two question marks- who is playing left and who is the DH.  I would assume Melky is in left and the Yankees will rotate the DH spot among the older guys. 

Go to the rotation.  You know the 1-2-3, but who makes up 4 and 5?  I assume Joba is one of those and the last guy is a mystery.   There are a lot of "could be's".  Could be Aceves, could be Gaudin, could be Hughes, could be me...you get the idea.

Which hole do you fill?  If I am picking, I sign Lackey.

I love Doc, but Doc is going to cost Joba and Montero plus more.  That's too steep a price to pay with Lackey available.  Signing Lackey gives you an amazing rotation and as cliche as it sounds, pitching wins championships.  You also have Joba as your fifth starter, a perfect opportunity for him to pitch every fifth day and prove he can do it.  And, Hughes is your setup guy, which gives you a great bullpen. 

Yes, you leave some holes in the lineup.  Melky (the 2009 version) or Gardner are not adequate left fielders, but they can certainly play defense out there and they are young enough that you can gamble on them growing.  Add a player like a Reed Johnson for low money or bring Eric Hinske back and you have some options in the corner.  Will you score as many runs in 2010 as you did in 2009?  Absolutely not, but I bet that when you consider the runs you allowed in 2010 versus 2009, you net out ahead.  The Yankees had a net of +162 in 2009, that should have equated to 95 wins.  I think under this plan that number grows and they should win more than 95 games.  That means a playoff spot to me and with a rotation of CC, AJ, Lackey and Andy in the playoffs, that's what you need, they can take it from there. 

 

Comments

You've got it all wrong! Curtis Granderson will be the Yanks new Leftfielder, Brett Gardner will play Centerfield, with Nick Swisher in Rightfield. Phil Hughes will be the starter and Joba Chamberlain will be the set-up guy. It will be between John Lacvkey and Ben Sheets for the other starting spot in the rotation.

Wouldn't be the first time, but Joba pitched 160 innings last year and Hughes about 100. If they put Hughes in the rotation they are going to have to fiddle with his innings like they did with Joba in 2009. I don't think they want to do that again.

Regardless of which player assumes which position in the OF, regardless of how they fill the DH spot - rotating the elders or Miranda or Montero or even Damon/Matsui ... I am guessing that Cashman makes one more play for another arm. That's got to be the focus cause "pitching wins championships". Yep, yep, yep. No way I could possibly agree more with you.

If the brothers are feeling good about their budget, it will be Lackey at whom they take a strong run. If they want to hold some budget in reserve to see how the July trade market looks - then they'll pass on Lackey's big money for now.

Well folks, if Sheets is truly expecting to get $12MM next year for his services, as reported here, http://espn.go.com/dallas/columns/rangers/blog/_/post/4728103?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter then I would say his chances of pitching for us are very, very low.

Mitchell , I say lets start the season with the position of strength , lackey now, not wait until july and scramble, you still have to then give up talent... now just money..forget damon ,use the $s he would get and they are still under 200mil..I don't know what they are waiting for, let Doc go , I think the yanks are making believe they are in it, so the sox have to give up alot.. you are on the $ when you say pitching wins.. sign nady for cheap or someone mentioned reed, great glove , i would like that move as a RH bat for grandy fill in.

he made a hugh mistake refusing all that money before he got hurt ,and now is doing the same, either he sees the world differently than us or his agent needs to be fired..this guy is in for a big surprise..for me I would give him a base of 3 mil ,loaded with incentives..remember mike witt?

$12 million? Wow, maybe that's what Cashman means about the pitching market getting expensive.

Maybe Sheets is a graduate of the Boras School of Negotiating - cause that number is just plain ridiculous for a guy with his injury history. An incentive laden deal, like Pettitte had to live with in 2009, that's how I would leave it with Sheets and then keep looking if he's really stuck on that silly number. I would also tack on a mutual option for 2011 to make the deal go down smoother if we were close.

Guys? The thing that makes me worry about a Lackey deal is that he would be the 3rd high dollar and, more importantly, long term pithcing deal for us - and long term deals for SPs scare the heck out of me. Pitchers are fragile - maybe, brittle would be a better word, but damn those sorts of deals worry me a lot. Yep, Lackey seems to be a horse, but even a horse can pull up lame every once in a while.

I have zero doubts that if we DID sign Lackey, we play October baseball in 2010, but I keep thinking that there's a budget that we're working with so I keep waffling around about it.

2010, 2011, 2012 , 2013.............Yanks goal is NEVER miss the playoffs, so lackey for 4 years , where is the pen and contract..

BWP? My point is that sometimes trees don't grow to the sky and pitcher's arms don't work all the time. There's a donwside risk to high dollar, very long term deals.

It's easy to say, "just do it" or "it's only 16 million for 4 or 5 years". I like thinking it doesn't matter also. It's FUN to think that way ... but, I'm just trying to be a realist and save some budget.

You are right about the money and the danger Mitchell and based on the number I heard he is asking for ($100 million), Lackey won't be in the Bronx next year.

I like your idea of offering Sheets the Pettitte 2009 contract, seems a reasonable offer for both sides. I would also have been happy to have given Harden the deal he got from Texas.

I keep wondering if Gaudin could do it. I see so much potential there, but those walks- ugh.

BWP - Gaudin has good looking stuff - but, as you say, the problem is you really don't know where it's going to land most of the time. His WHIP has ranged around the 1.5 mark his entire career. He's young - but, in his young career, he's been consistently all over the place.

And yep - a $100MM is a big number to put on one arm !!!

Mitchell, going by the 200mil and under ,lackey does fit... and when did years come into play for the yanks? giambi , CC, Aj , jeter , we can keep going, the true way to set upfor the long term plan is 4 5 year contracts so every year isn't a scramble.. don't forget mo comes off this year and posada next. about 30 mil..so think of the budget going into the coming years.. everyone who steps on the field is a gamble they may sustain a major injury..to me giving pettitte that much $ was un called for.. but they went sentimental .. i personally think he is going to have an off year..near 5 era...no way they should think he is # 3 guy 4or 5 OK, but that is just my take..we also have gambles for those spots, I know we will all be talking about this in july unless they get lackey or Doc, remember last june july we yankee fans were quit upset with our starters and where do we find one.. please correct me if i misstate the facts, Mitchell do you agree on pettittes 12mil? what a bad investment into the future, those $s should be applied to a horse, with 4 or 5 years left. one thing about lackey he is a fighter, i respected him last year and the fight he had in him ..he is no slacker, we gave that dog pavano 4 years.. looking forward for feed back thanks

BWP - You give some great examples as to how long term deals can hurt us: Giambi and Pavano being two sterling ones.

And about Pettitte? It's a one year deal, he's basically getting about a 10% raise from his 2009 numbers - and today's market indicates that's what his level of performance garners per year.

Now here's my point: the length of contract increases the risk of the contract by a very large factor - and the player's age has to be factored in as well. Would I give Lackey a 2 year $30MM deal - yeah, I most assuredly would. Would I want to go to four or 5 years, even if it's back end loaded? Nope, I would not. Too many things can happen to pitchers over that span of time period. Repeat, in my book, the length of the contract introduces additional risks.

An analogy, if you want one is the two risk factors for bonds, credit worthingness and interest rate changes. Credit worthiness means - will the borrower be able to pay back the loan at the established interest rate. Interest rate changes refers to the extent to which interest rates will move higher, thereby making the payment stream from the lender less valuable cause a "new" bond will have a higher yield to a lender. Yeah, weird analogy - but my point is that time is a key factor with the asset known as "ball player". LOL

hey Mitchell, maybe we could forget baseball for the moment and ask you for a loan?but yes i did give both the negative contrct and the positive ones, my point is we still give them now, so why stop at this point. it is one more deal. lackey is a #1 on most teams with us a 3.. we gave 20 mil to talk to igawa, cash had a chance to move him to sd two years ago and did not..why who knows..what did brackman get 10 mil...and pettitte only got last years $s because of incentives.. base salary 5.5? should have been the same deal maybe a little more base because of the playoffs as a reward ..will he give back the $s if he don't repeat last years goals, i think not..andy is all about the $.do not be fooled by his act..he is a yankee i like , he is tough in big games. and will be a yankee stone in center field one day..only the yankees give him those $s . does theo...and i like your analogy.. really..thats what i mean when i said andy is a poor investment at that rate.. now you help me with my point. their is no future in andy.. only we hope he holds up..12mil, would you not expect a pitcher a sub 4 era?? no way i give it to a guy who i know will be 4.50 and up. thanks michell

BWP. It's always a "risk versus reward" decision when making an investment or ... signing someone.

I view the last two years to be the beginning of a "new era" in Yankees baseball. The fading of George's controlling impulsivity and the rise of the calculating machine that is Brian Cashman.

When you combine Cashman's cold logic with the deep pockets of George's wealth? You get one heck of a ball club. Yankees ! We're baaaaaaaaaaaack.

OK ,but what about the loan..Mitchell ..how about this.. saves money gives us a better defense and lackey.. grandy CF.. Damon left.. Melky right... Swisher to Penn Station.. I think he gets 9 (plus} this year and 11 next..now you have damon and lackey, we lost 2 bullpen guys.. so gaudin or not my pick but girardi loves him..mitre for the fifth spot joba and phil in the pen..you bat grandy behind arod?? ok let me have it.. Peter what do you think

BWP - my loan terms are horrendous, you wouldn't take 'em.

Damon in left is a deal breaker for me: guy has a noodle arm. Melky/LF, Grandy/CF, Swish/RF. I would slot Grandy behind Posada. My guess is Damon's still at No. 2 as the DH. I think his deal gets done, Boras's bluffing notwithstanding cause Damon is pretty much awful as an OFer now with that arm.

Can't really see the SP layout yet until we see how spring training goes for Joba, Hughes and the rest. I also really believe that there's another arm coming from outside the club. And not Doc, at least until July. We just to have to wait it out I suspect.

Mitchell

You have to be a FC or FA or whatever your firm calls them.

Damon at DH works perfectly. Say 90 games at DH and 70 games in LF. That allows the Yankees to give 10-15 games at DH for the older guys (Posada, A-Rod, Jeter) and some random games there for the younger ones.

Peter - I get called lots of things, some of 'em not OK to repeat in polite company (LOL).

I'm reading that Boras the Blush Master is asking for $13MM for 3 or 4 years for Damon (and asking for a deal in that way is really dysfunctional if it's being reported correctly). My guess - and everyone else's apparently - is that Cashman won't go more than two and will probably bring the deal home for Abreu's deal "plus a smidge" - the smidge being so that Damon announce in the clubhouse: "See, I got more than Abreu!". Athletes, they'll compete about anything. It's what makes hitters hate pitchers and vice versa.

i was hoping to see posada DH 81 games, he is fragile behind the plate and if he is our protection for arod we need him fresh and strong hands.

Mitchell- We had some colorful names at my firm too.

Remember that four years ago it was all about Boras saying Damon deserved seven years and he settled for four.

It was also four years ago that Brian Cashman kept saying Bubba Crosby would be the Yankees' centerfielder in 2006.

Posturing on the left and posturing on the right, how will it all end?

damon gets 2 years 20 mil, like mitchell said...he wants for year deal to reach 3000 hits.. oh besides the cash. mitchell i agree on damons ability on defense, more of a liability.


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