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An A-Bomb For A-Bel

Catchy, isn't it?  No?  You're right, it'll never take off, Adrian Beltre doesn't hit home runs.

File this as "asleep at the wheel," but I just learned that the Red Sox and Adrian Beltre agreed to a deal.  According to Peter Gammons, the deal is for 1 year at $9mm with a player option in 2011 for $5mm.  Wow, rumor had it Beltre was looking for a multi year, $13mm or so per year, or make that Scott Boras was looking for...

Analysis, this deal greatly improves the Red Sox defense and allows Kevin Youkilis to stay at first base. Casey Kotchman has once again been relegated to the bench.  Beltre didn't hit at all in 2009 hence the one-year deal.  He must think he will do very well in 2010.  Or, maybe he is finished and this, and the 2011 option are just gravy on an already lucrative career.  My hope is for the former, but the cynic in me thinks its the latter.

His offense has only been really good in one season.  In 2004 he had a 1.017 OPS vs. his career OPS of .779. Hmmm, how did that happen?  Regardless of how that happened, he parlayed that into a mega deal with Seattle. Seattle plays in a hitter non-friendly park and one could argue Beltre's numbers didn't look good there because no one does well there...except Ichiro.

So the Red Sox have signed a defensive wiz and a questionable offensive talent, but have limited their risk to 2 years and $14mm.  Not terrible.  This just puts an exclamation point next to their off-season plans of reducing runs allowed.  It'll be interesting to see the ERAs of the pitching staff as you have to consider the following:

Player: UZR 2009/2009 rank at position in Majors:

3rd - Beltre: 21.00/1st vs. Lowell: -14.4/last, if included in qualifying list

cf - Cameron: 10.3/4th vs. Ellsbury -18.3/4th worst (I'm not sure what to make of Ellsbury's rating, these numbers and what I see with my eyes tell 2 different stories.  I'm sure Ellsbury wasn't perfect, but 4th worst?  Tough for me to understand).

ss - Scutaro: 1.0/14th vs. Red Sox SS team total in 2009 of 3.1/12th in baseball (Alex Gonzalez was a 10.5)

I'd do an Ellsbury vs. Bay report in left, but Ellsbury didn't play an inning there in 2009, so I'll not do so.

No matter, it looks like this signing is the biggest net improvement defensively thus far and the Cameron signing is 2nd.  The Scutaro signing, is actually a net loss defensively, but I still prefer him there vs. Alex Gonzalez given the offensive upside.

Other news out suggests the Red Sox and Mets are talking about a Mike Lowell for Luis Castillo deal.  Basically a swap of contracts I would suspect.  Castillo is due $6mm in both 2010 and 2011.  Lowell really has no role here in 2010 and the Red Sox would be best shipping him sooner than later.  Lowell has been a good soldier, but his time has passed.

Comments

It also wouldn't be the call made by the guy you are referencing. I think he would got with "Beltre Belts One!"

Fascinating approach by the Red Sox this offseason taking away from the offense while upgrading the pitching and defense. The question I have is how much stock can you place in any one defensive metric? Take Ellsbury, by Zone Rating numbers, he was the second-best centerfielder in the AL last year. UZR is even trickier when it is applied to infielders as it doesn't measure line drives or pop ups.

And I would never put anything past Omar, but what would the Mets do with Lowell? Can he play first?

Peter, Per UZR, he was the 2nd or 4th worst centerfielder.

Where are you getting your numbers?

I think it's an intelligent move that goes with the other ones that Theo has made this winter.

"A Boomer from Beltre" is my vote.

Pitchers & catchers in 44 days. :-)

Andy

Yes I understand that, but as I said Zone Rating #'s (available everywhere) show him 2nd-best.


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