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ESPN is reporting that both J.D. Drew and Mike Lowell are capable of hitting, but not necessarily ready to play the field.

So my proposal:  Petition the commissioner, for many of you, you already consider him a Red Sox apologist, and ask for 3 DH spots.  Lowell, Drew and Ortiz in the DH whilst players like Alex Cora and Coco Crisp play the field without hitting.

Done and done.

It is good news that Drew and Lowell feel OK to hit, but they really need to feel good about everything at this point.  While in the post-season most players have an injury or two, these 2 must have more than the basic injury.  I've had my issues with Drew, but having watched Lowell, he is not good to go.

So if Drew is can play the field, great.  That leaves Lowell as the first pinch-hitter off the bench and Crisp the primary base stealing threat (ala Dave Roberts) and outfield defensive replacement.

The Red Sox need to get out of the blocks quickly in this series.  Reader Blmeanie suggested that David Ortiz could be the deciding factor offensively.  If he has healed sufficiently and can make a early statement, the Red Sox have a much better chance.

I still take the Red Sox in 5 as the they have many good players and have a bunch of players that have been to the post-season and won important games.  The Angels are a very good team but seem to fade in post-season play.  Perhaps this year will be different as they still have a bunch of returning veterans and a few new all-stars (Hunter and Teixeira).

First pitch:  10:00pm Wednesday night (that's what they say.  My guess is more like 10:15pm).

Posted by Andy (Red Sox) at 11:24 PM | Permalink

Game 1 in Anaheim Wed Oct 1, 10:00pm - Jon Lester (16-6, 3.21) vs. John Lackey (12-5, 3.75)

Game 2 in Anaheim Fri Oct 3, 9:30pm - Daisuke Matsuzaka (18-3, 2.90) vs. Ervin Santana 1(6-7, 3.49)

Game 3 in Boston Sun Oct 5, time TBD - Joe Saunders, (17-7 3.41) vs. Josh Beckett (12-10, 4.03)

Game 4 in Boston - TBD

Game 5 in Anaheim - TBD

The Red Sox and Angels meet yet again in the ALDS.  Last year, the Red Sox took care of business in quick fashion as they did in 2004 against Anaheim.  But in both 2004 and 2007, they had Manny Ramirez.  In the 6 games covering the 2004 and 2007 ALDS against Anaheim, Manny hit 3 HRs and had 11 RBI.

Additionally, the Red Sox, unlike 2007, don't have home field advantage.  Oh and did I mention they went 1-8 against the Angels this year?

Now to address the 1,000 pound gorilla in the room, the Red Sox might be without their playoff ace Josh Beckett.  As you know, Beckett strained his oblique a few days ago and it has Red Sox officials worried enough to pencil him for game 3, he'd normally be in for game 1, and to proclaim that while they expect him to be ready, the are monitoring his health.

I've never had an oblique injury, but Mike Lowell has and he missed a month.  An oblique injury can linger and for the Red Sox to think he'll be fine in about a week is dubious but they know more about his health that I would.

Strike one against Boston.

The good news for the Red Sox is they still have a good rotation.  Jon Lester has been very good this year and no matter how frustrating and difficult it is to watch Matsuzaka, he has been effective, albeit in a playing-with-fire style.

Should Beckett not be able to go, I would expect Paul Byrd to start.  I have a great deal of respect for Tim Wakefield, but he has been a terrible post-season pitcher (17-10, 6.26 ERA ).  Byrd, while not great, is 7-5 in post-season play with a 4.80 ERA.  I will admit Wakefield's win/loss is astounding given his ERA, but nevertheless, he can't expect his offense to overcome that ERA.

As far as overall pitching staffs go, the Red Sox have a 4.01 ERA and the Angels 4.00.  Pretty even, but the bullpen for Anaheim has K-Rod and no matter how you slice it, 60 saves is impressive.  I like how Hideki Okajima has been pitching of late and Javier Lopez has been good all year.  Papelbon has been a bit shaky lately.  Overall though, I think the pitching match-ups are fairly similar. 

Offense:

Red Sox - .280/.358/.447 - 845 runs scored

Anaheim - .268/.330/.413 - 765 runs scored

I know I'm missing something, but it would seem the Red Sox offense is better, no?  Tell me where they aren't?  They have more 2b, 3b and HRs and BB.  You see the stats above, but how about steals?  Ok, the Red Sox stole 120, the Angels 129.  I'll give them that although the Red Sox have a better steal %, 77 to 73.

While the Red Sox offense certainly looks better on paper, what say you about Manny Ramirez?  Manny has been crazy good this year, but his Boston OPS, .926, vs his LAD OPS, 1.232.  That's telling.  Manny didn't want to play in Boston anymore.  He was a liability and had to be dealt.

I'm not saying he would tank in the playoffs like he might have continued to do in the regular season, but I think his teammates prefer his replacement Jason Bay when it comes to an effort standpoint.  As for Bay, he hasn't been bad.  .293/.370/.527 in 49 games with 39 runs, 9 HR, 37 RBI.  About on par with Manny while he was here.  Bay finished the 2008 regular season with 111 runs, 31 HRs and 101 RBI and 10 steals with 0 caught.  Decent replacement numbers.

I believe the Red Sox success hinges on J.D. Drew's health and to a lesser extent Mike Lowell's health.  Drew works pitchers and is a tougher out than is Mark Kotsay or Coco Crisp.  Drew forces opposing pitchers to grind much harder.

Lowell?  Well he hasn't had a great year and even if he'd stayed healthy, his projected performance wouldn't be much better than good (i.e above average).

The good news is that both Drew and Lowell took BP today and are both good possibilities to start but I think after watching Lowell recently, he might start, but not finish.  He looks very unhealthy for a post-season run.

Anyway, that isn't an in-depth analysis, but a few quick hits.

My prediction:  Red Sox in 5.  The Red Sox offense is better and their pitching is just as good as Anaheim's if Beckett is healthy.  Beckett didn't bring his A-game this year and the Red Sox still managed to win a few games, so even without Beckett at all, I say the Red Sox take this series.

What say you?  Am I crazy?  Is Beckett's potential loss a far bigger loss than I am admitting?  Is Lowell's bad health a bigger deal than I think?  The the obvious answer to these questions is "NO" but I'll leave it to you to tell me otherwise.

Posted by Andy (Red Sox) at 09:18 PM | Permalink | Comments (7)

Yes, I know, I dusted off an old chestnut.

The Red Sox clinched a playoff birth and are still defending the 2007 title.

I'm thrilled the Red Sox secured a post-season spot now as it will allow them to give the wounded time off.  Mike Lowell, Coco Crisp, Josh Beckett and others will get a chance to take a week off.

As the playoffs approach, I'll provide some analysis, but for now, time to partay.

Posted by Andy (Red Sox) at 10:18 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)

Of course the Red Sox are fed up with J.D. Drew.  But it is what the Red Sox are doing about it that is interesting.

Even the casual Red Sox fan has noticed the Red Sox stepped-up rhetoric with regards to playing with injuries.  In light of J.D. Drew being essentially unavailable for 3 weeks now, the Red Sox and Drew's teammates have made a point of telling that world that playing through pain is what playoff caliber teams do.

Examples:

1.)  David Ortiz being very specific about his wrist injury and how it is still "clicking" and causing him concern.

2.)  Mike Lowell telling the press that he has a torn labrum in his right hip.  Normally Lowell or Ortiz would have kept quiet and just played baseball.

3.)  Tuesday night's pre-game on NESN, Assistant GM (not sure what his title is anymore after the Theo fiasco a few years back) Jed Hoyer went on and on praising Lowell saying things like (paraphrase time) "that is the kind of player we want in Boston, one who plays through pain" and "Mike is a gamer, the kind of tough player Boston fans deserve."  Hoyer went on and on to the point where I was thinking, alright, we get the point.

Normally the Red Sox take a path on the discussion of injuries somewhere in the middle of the Patriots ("I know nothing!") and a reality show.  Right down the middle.  But in this case, they opened up in an effort to shame Drew into playing.

So far?  Nothing.  J.D. is just...unavailable.  Too bad too because when you look at the line-up the Red Sox threw out there Wednesday night, it just lacked pop.  Missing were Jason Bay (baby on the way), Drew (pulled heart) and Mike Lowell (hip).  Or 66 home runs.

Obviously I'd like the Red Sox to win the division, but they just don't have the horses to win a slug-fest every night.  On Wednesday Tim Wakefield was horrendous and Javier Lopez's error really turned the game upside down turning a 4 run lead to a 6 run lead.  Painful.  Lopez has been good things year, just an unfortunately event.  They just don't have the bats now to do what they did in game 1 time and again.

A day off today and then to Toronto.  I hope Terry Francona figures out what his goal is immediately.  In other words, accept the Wild Card or press on for the division title.  If they accept Wild Card (no lock, but looking good), then he can let off the gas a bit and rest Lowell and company.  But if Terry waivers, he could unnecessarily risk further injury to guys that need rest.

Posted by Andy (Red Sox) at 08:47 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)

Unload time.

 - Daisuke Matsuzaka is unbearable to watch.  He is slow, doesn't throw strikes and un-enjoyable to watch.  He takes what seems to be a nap between pitches (I had the game on Tivo and let it run a good 90 seconds between his 1st and 2nd pitch of an at bat with nothing worth noting slowing events down, so very slow).

 - What was Terry Francona thinking asking Varitek to bunt in the 9th?  Seriously.  Ellsbury is on the bench, sure he is dealing with a quad injury, but he was healthy enough to eventually pinch run for Mark Kotsay.  Varitek should not be bunting.  With the expanded roster, leave the bunting to someone who does it on occasion.

 - Jonathan Papelbon's unwillingness to throw the splitter is the reason he has been more hittable this year.  Why not throw it?  Unless there is some injury concern, Papelbon has made a bad tactical decision in shelving the splitter in favor of his slider, a much more hittable pitch.

Breath, out with the bad, in with the good.  And repeat.

The Red Sox have a 6 game lead on the Wild Card and don't need to win the A.L. East, but this win for the Rays gives them renewed energy.  If the two meet in the playoffs, I hope the Rays don't remember this one.  But seriously, I need to relax.

Josh Beckett goes Wednesday in an effort to get the Red Sox back to within a half game of the Rays.

Posted by Andy (Red Sox) at 10:40 PM | Permalink | Comments (5)