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July 31, 2009

Red Sox Moves

I write this from a small island in Maine.  A small island with no high-speed, no 3G network, just slow dial-up...really slow.

Anyway, despite my limited information flow, I've learned (what you all learned probably hours ago) that the Red Sox have traded for the Indians Victor Martinez.  A good bat to be sure.  I suppose he'll help out Jason Varitek in catching and spell David Ortiz against tough lefties and spell Mike Lowell against tough righties.  It isn't just depth, but good hitting depth.

With the addition of Martinez, Adam LaRoche was traded to the Braves for Casey Kotchman.  Kotchman seems to add more depth at a position the Red Sox do not need and I'm not sure how they keep him on the 25-man roster.  The Red Sox traded Justin Masterson (removed from 25-man roster), Nick Hagadone and Bryan Price to get Martinez.  So there is space for Kotchman, but now the Red Sox have 1 fewer pitching options.

I'm sure we'll learn more about what they intend on doing in the coming hours.  With Clay Buchholz still in the organization, there is still a chance of a pitching upgrade (Roy Halladay perhaps...doubtful).

The Red Sox did add some pop to the line-up and some versatility too, but when you match Martinez and LaRoche up side by side, it isn't like Martinez is twice the player LaRoche is, is it?  I like the move, but very expensive.  I guess that's why you have minor leaguers, to trade them for known talent.

July 27, 2009

This Isn't Working

I was as thrilled as anyone that the Red Sox signed John Smoltz in the off-season, but let's face it, he is terrible right now.  He can say his pitches look and feel good all he wants, but his 7+ era suggests he is either he is fooling himself, or just in denial.

I would hope that a meeting of the minds could take place soon regarding Smoltz and that he could be DLed and sent down to rehab in the minors.  With the Red Sox 2.5 games back, the major league level is no place to work on mechanics and conditioning.  Let Smoltz do that in Pawtucket.

The obvious concern is who would replace Smoltz at this moment.  I have to assume Michael Bodwen for a time and then Tim Wakefield when his health improves.  Given that I believe Wakefield's injury was more phantom than real, I bet he'd be available on his first day back, which I think is this Friday.

On another note, wouldn't Adrian Gonzalez look good in a Red Sox uniform?  I keep hearing the Red Sox are asking, but the Padres are interested unless it was a boffo package of players (read: Lars Anderson, Clay Buchholz and Michael Bowden and maybe another player or 2).  I give this deal about a 5% chance of happening.

July 24, 2009

Farewell

The Red Sox have DFA Mark Kotsay according to the Boston.com.  So ends the speculation on who was getting the pink slip.

It makes sense, Kotsay became an unnecessary redundancy (to use a recent Theo Epstein word)...who couldn't hit.

Tonight marks the debut of Adam LaRoche in a Red Sox uniform.  I don't think line-ups have been posted just yet, but I bet he gets a start tonight.

July 22, 2009

More on Adam LaRoche

One of the driving reasons behind the Red Sox acquisition of Adam LaRoche was most likely his career 1st half/2nd half splits.

1st half career: .252 avg, .326 obp, .447 slg, .773 OPS

2nd half career: .296 avg, .357 obp, .544 slg, .901 OPS.

Clearly a case of 2 different hitters.  The Red Sox are banking on him repeating his 2nd half surge.

In addition, his career OPS against righties is .847 and vs. lefties its .743.  So he is expected to see most of his time against righties.  Mike Lowell has hit righties at a .797 clip and lefties at a .851 clip (OPS).  Lowell's lob-sided OPS splits are even more extreme in 2009 (.758/.903).

So expect to see much less Mike Lowell in the line-up, specifically against righties.  This will serve Lowell well as it will allow him more time off to heal his hip and it will serve the Red Sox better because you'll have a near-platoon like situation at the corner infield positions that will be the best offensive line-up possible given their pieces.

While no official announcement has been made, I assume Mark Kotsay is gone.  He provided nice flexibility with his glove, but isn't much of a hitter these days.  His last decent offensive season was 2005.  That's a long time ago.  It's nice to say a player can play multiple positions, but if all he can do is field, then not so much.  A guy like Kevin Youkilis is great because he can handle both 3rd and 1st well and still put up a .950 OPS.

It is being reported that the Pirates are sending some cash along with LaRoche to offset his cost.

Obviously the Red Sox feel Rocco Baldelli is healthy enough to be the sole back-up outfielder.

A few overdue notes, with Tim Wakefield on the DL, Clay Buchholz is back up.  Good I say.  It seems so suspect that a spot would open for Buchholz this close to the deadline as I think the Red Sox will use his next 2 starts (after a successful start last week) as a means to gauge his potential in 2009.  If they like what they see, they will likely get rid of Brad Penny and/or John Smoltz.  Let's face it, Penny has received far too much positive press for a guy with a 5+ era and Smoltz just hasn't been sharp now with a 6+ era.

The Red Sox need to figure out if Buchholz will help them this year and now is the time to find out so they can react accordingly at the trade deadline.

My bets:  Buchholz wins a full time spot in the rotation and Penny is gone.  And if Matsuzaka can get healthy, Smoltz might get released.  Although I suspect Smoltz has a better chance of figuring things out than does Matsuzaka in 2009.

Word Has It...

UPDATE:  The 2 lucky winners of the "you might play in Pittsburgh someday" prize are:  Hunter Strickland and Argenis Diaz, according to WEEI.com.

Diaz is a low-hit, excellent fielding shortstop at AA Portland and Strickland is a starter at Mid-A Greenville.

...that the Red Sox have acquired Adam LaRoche from the Pittsburgh Pirates.  LaRoche has power, mediocre OBP and plays firstbase...and DH.  I've heard be plays the DH position very well.

No word yet on who they are giving up, but LaRoche will afford them more power off the bench and probably means Mark Kotsay's days are done here, no?  Also, with Kevin Youkilis's versatility, expect to see Mike Lowell sitting more often.

LaRoche is a free agent after the season and is making approx. $7.5mm this year.

I'll try to update when I can on the details.

July 17, 2009

Pink Slip

Julio Lugo was designated for assignment today according to WEEI.  Being DFAed allows the Red Sox some time to work out a deal, although I really cannot expect any team to bite, after all, this was done for the purpose of opening up a roster spot.  Basically they said, we'll spend $13mm to make a spot.

This allows Clay Buchholz to join the team Friday night and if Aaron Bates gets demoted, we can expect to see Mike Lowell back as well.

As for Jed Lowrie, well he might not be here until Saturday which brings up the question, who is the back up middle infielder tonight?

Log Jam

Log Jam, as most of you know, is a delicious New England treat.  It is created by taking a roughly 35-foot pine and a 45-foot birch and mashing them together until you get jam...Log Jam.  It is very tasty on toast.

You can also make Log Jam by having an overpaid, under-skilled shortstop named Julio Lugo and trying to fit him on a major league 25-man roster with a more talented, younger  and much cheaper shortstop named Jed Lowrie.

When the Red Sox resume baseball activities Friday, they will quickly have to figure out what to do with Julio Lugo.  There has been much talk about this topic and the idea of a salary dump trade or an outright release of Lugo has been discussed.

No matter, Lugo is going to be gone.  We can discuss the good and bad of Lugo in depth, but he is not going to be part of this team.  The fact that journeyman Nick Green has been starting over a healthy Lugo is proof enough.

Right now, the Red Sox are just trying to find a taker.  Boston.com says they are just about willing to assume all of Lugo's salary ($13mm over the rest of 2008 and 2009) for even a marginal/breathing prospect.

I'm not sure why any team would trade anything for Lugo as he is certain to be released and then be available at virtually no cost (assuming no line to talk to Lugo's agents).

Imagine that, by the way, getting fired from your job and still getting $13mm.  That kind of money has the potential to be a multi-generational impact on a family.  Let's say you net $6mm of that deal accounting for your agent, the US Government, the State of Massachusetts and union dues, that could be invested conservatively and earn, what, 4-6% over a mid-long term period of time (difficult in these low-rate times I know, but mid-long term).

That is serious interest that could fund many, many things and as long as no knuckleheads get control over finances, wow, a life changing event.  Then consider Lugo signed a $36mm deal and the net being much higher...just insane cash.  Now, if a knucklehead does get involved, yikes, get ready for business as usual for a family...and many lawsuits.

Back to the Red Sox, Lugo is going to be gone and the Red Sox are going to be better for it.  I'm not convinced Lowrie is 100%, but if he is, expect a hitter who can hit for medium power (15-20 Hr) and make a pitcher work at the same time.  In addition, he is no defensive liability.

Also, look for Clay Buchholz for a spot start Friday night.  I've heard this might be a "showcase" start for the Blue Jays so the Red Sox can trade for Roy Halladay, but I think this is more a showcase to see if he can help the Red Sox in 2009, thus allowing them to trade a starter for more offense.

Anyway, enjoy your New England Log Jam, so tasty.

July 15, 2009

Have I Told You Lately...

...that I love you?

Joe Madden, you could not have been a better All-Star game manager Tuesday night.  As a Red Sox fan, I cannot think of a better outcome.  Let me tell you why:

 - Josh Beckett and Tim Wakefield didn't pitch.

 - Jonathan Papelbon threw only 10 pitches.

 - Kevin Youkilis and Jason Bay combined to go 2-3 and Dustin Pedroia stayed home.

The All-Star break is always a bunch of fun and it is good for baseball, but for a fan rooting for a team in contention, there is always the worry of overuse or injury.  The Red Sox leave St. Louis in good shape.

Interesting to hear the players talk about meeting the President.  George Bush owned a baseball team, but Barack Obama seems to be far more the sports fan than any other President I can remember.  Not a political stance by any means, just an observation.  He trotted out with a White Sox jacket on, in St. Louis, and he seems to enjoy talking about sports in general.

July 10, 2009

A Boston Halladay?

As you should know by this point, Toronto is listening to offers for their ace Roy Halladay.  Without question, he'd look great in a Red Sox uniform, but is that the right move?

First, it is important to know he has a full no-trade clause and has one year left beyond 2009 on his contract, so an acquiring team would have him for about a season and a half.

The Red Sox, or any team, would have to come up with 2 top prospects and maybe a 3rd or a current major leaguer.  At least one of those prospects would have to be a pitcher.  The idea being Toronto would want to replace their ace with at least someone who could develope into an ace.  So Clay Buchholz, Lars Anderson and maybe Manny Delcarmen would be a starting offer.  The Red Sox certainly have the prospects, but do they need Halladay that badly?

Again, of course they need him, any team would, but all we've heard in 2009 is the glut of starters on the Red Sox.  With Beckett, Lester, Wakefield, Penny and Smoltz (and Matsuzaka ready to return in a month and Buchholz willing and able at Pawtucket), the Red Sox might be best off using their trading chips for help in their line-up.  Mike Lowell is not a guarantee and if he does not come back 100%, there is no back-up plan that is acceptable.  I'm sorry, but Kevin Youkilis at 3rd and Mark Kotsay at 1st won't cut it.  Kotsay hits like a, well, a back-up.

I'd make an offer for Halladay offering some lesser talent and let Toronto say "no thank you" and then evaluate Lowell and company for the next 2 weeks and then focus on the biggest need.  If at that time it's starting pitching that's in need, and Halladay is still available, then upgrade the offer.  But I wouldn't rush into a Halladay when there might be bigger worries elsewhere.

Also, the Red Sox have reportedly signed Cuban defector Jose Iglasias (not Julio's son I'd be willing to bet) to an $8 million deal.  He is supposedly a smooth defensive shortstop, but his bat is questionable.  That's a ton of money on a good glove (I hope these words haunt me).

July 06, 2009

Bates Motel

The Red Sox called up Aaron Bates to take the place of Jeff Bailey (ankle sprain, DL stint).  Bates is a bit of a surprise as he was just promoted to AAA Pawtucket and has struggled going .182/.273/.295 in 99 plate appearances.

Bates did crush the ball earlier this year while with AA Portland posting .340/.405/.505 in 232 PAs.

More surprising is that Bates is being thrust into the mix playing 1b tonight and hitting 9th.  Terry Francona certainly does like to get his players involved.  Mark Kotsay, the other obvious 1b, was quoted on Boston.com as saying he has a calf issue and just needs to take it easy for a bit.

The Boston Globe ran a piece on Bates about a month ago and what has lead to his recent success.

Another interesting note is the return of Nomar Garciaparra.  This will mark his first return to Fenway.  I believe he was on the DL when another team of his played in Boston, but this should be the first time he actually confronts the Fenway Faithful.  My bet is a standing ovation.  Time heals...