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Thanks to the Marlins and Royals for making a trade and kicking off the hot stove.  We should start to hear about free agency filings soon and I imagine there will be some surprises.  Don't be shocked when Mike Mussina files for free agency, it is just to keep his options open. 

The Yankees will also start making announcements on player options soon.  Expect to see them decline the options of Pavano and Giambi, the only question is what they do with Marte.  I am not sure which way they will land on that one, but I hope it is to decline it.  One of the stranger things in baseball is the fact that teams can sign free agents before teams have to offer free agents arbitration.  The GM meetings start next week so expect some action to start soon.  And, don't believe 95% of the rumors you read, remember newspapers need to fill column inches and sell papers.

As for the trivia, the answer is from 1979-1982 the Pirates, Phillies, Dodgers and Cardinals all won titles, the last time the NL went back-to-back.  Since then, the AL has gone back-to-back (or more) four times and the 26 years since the NL has done it represents the longest gap ever by either league.

And besides setting up the NL with a chance to break that streak in 2009, the Phillies vicotry represented something else last night.  By winning their 2nd World Series, the Phillies became the last of the original 16 franchises that made up the NL and AL to win a second crown.  

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 04:43 PM | Permalink

Cross Larry Bowa off your list as third base coach next year, he is staying in LA.  At this point I think Luis Sojo might be a good candidate, he might be able to make a connection with Cano and he could definitely work with the infielders.  The Yankees could also move Rob Thomson to third and find a new bench coach which wouldnt' be a terrible idea either.

What I wouldn't hold my breath for is Willie Randolph coming back. Willie is looking for another managing job and bringing him back to the Yankees creates a very awkward situation with Joe Girardi.  The first losing streak would bring all sorts of questions about Joe's job security and the Yankees need to minimize the distractions next year, not magnify them. 

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 09:16 AM | Permalink

The free agent pitching market is really split into two tiers.  There is the Sabathia tier and then everyone else.  You can make cases for Sheets, Burnett, Oliver Perez, etc., but when you boil it down there are questions about all of them.  Considering that those guys will probably get at minimum Carl Pavano type deals, someone like Derek Lowe might make some sense. 

Lowe has pitched in the AL East and his numbers the past few years look good.  Plus, he won't require the same type of deal Sheets or Burnett would.  Lowe has pitched 200 innnings in each of the last four years (ok 199.3 in 2007) and is a sinkerballer which minimizes the damages when he gets hit.

But, a deeper look at the numbers and there are some red flags.  First, his ERA at Dodger Stadium was much better than his ERA on the road (Dodger Stadium is a pitcher's park)  Plus his strikeout rates went way up in LA from his last years in Boston.  That isn't normal and perhaps more a factor of facing NL batters than anything else.  Throw in a report that he doesn't want to play in New York and the fact that he has an agent named Boras, and it isn't a move I would make.  

The key for the Yankees will be avoiding making a mistake on the free agent pitching market.  Assuming you get Sabathia that puts him, Wang and Joba in the rotation.  I still bring back Andy Pettitte and I let Phil Hughes take the last spot.  Look at all the young pitchers in the World Series right now.  Except for really Hamels, it took awhile for them to establish themselves.  If the Yankees truly believe in Hughes, they owe him a shot.    

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 09:25 AM | Permalink

I was going to talk about Derek Lowe today, but there are a number of stories in the papers today about the Mets being interested in Mike Cameron so I thought I would take a look at him.  First thing with Cameron is that he is not a free agent- yet.  The Brewers have a $10-million option on him and they still haven't decided what to do about that.  If they exercise it, Cameron returns to the Brewers in '09 and this is moot.

But, let's say they don't, should the Yankees sign Cameron?  Let's consider centerfield for New York right now.  The Yankees do not want to invest a lot of $$ into center because they are hoping for Austin Jackson to step into the role and hopefully do so in 2010.  So, any player trotting out to center in a Yankees uniform should not be too comfortable. 

Option 1 would be putting Damon back in center, but I think the Yankees realize he can't handle the defense out there fulltime in 2009 and his arm is much better suited to left.  

Option 2 would be Gardner.  I like this idea, why not see what you have in Garnder before going outside the organization and bringing in another player?  Maybe Garnder can be a high OBP guy who can play defense.  The problem is, Gardner is a risk, a big one for a team trying to contend in 2009.  (I am not putting Melky into the conversation, almost 1500 AB's have given us a reasonable basis to say he isn't an everyday player)

So that leads us to Option 3 which is find someone who can play center for a year or maybe two and then vanish and Cameron is perfect in that role.  Yes, he strikes out way, way too much.  And he has had some problems with taking things he shouldn't have, but he is a plus OPS player at a tough position and he plays it well. He has also played in New York, so it won't be a shock to him.  I would prefer to roll the dice on Garnder and see what he can become, but signing Cameron to a two-year deal wouldn't be a bad move.

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 02:28 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Look, we have to go here, I just hope we don't spend a lot of time on this planet.  Anyone interested in improving the Yankees for 2009 has to at least consider that signing Manny would help.  And yes, I understand the guy is a total ass. 

But, you have to admit, other than A-Rod is there a better righty hitter in the game?  Plus, unlike A-Rod, Manny seems to do better when the pressure is on, thriving in the clutch.  (To be fair to A-Rod, no matter how much you don't like him you have to say he never would have quit on a team the way Manny quit on Boston earlier in 2008)  You could sign Manny in 2009, put him in left, Damon in center and Matsui at DH.  After 2009, Manny could split time between left and DH.  Plus, he would be coming back home- playing every night about 10 minutes from where he grew up.

If I type anymore, I am going to be sick.  Manny may be one of the most talented hitters I have ever seen, but he is also the biggest ass I have ever seen.  Boston fans adored him and defended him until he stopped playing for them and now LA is embracing him.  Don't be fooled, as soon as he is comfortable again he will stop playing at the same level and revert to his old habits.  The best thing in all of this is his agent, Scott Boras, comparing Manny to Bonds when saying he deserves a five or six-year deal.  (First question I would ask if I were the GM sitting across the table from Boras and Manny is "does Manny do HGH and other illegal steroids too?" because if that is the standard, I want to know my future player is doing everything he can to emulate Bonds)  "Let the buyer beware" has never been a more appropriate saying ever.

I am not even going to waste your time with this nonsense.  instead, I want to know if there is a Yankees fan out there who wants Manny on the team in 2009?  Is there anyone who would like this move?

(And, I will make my pitch for signing a former Red Sox or two in the next few days) 

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 12:07 AM | Permalink | Comments (3)

It wasn't the numbers that Sabathia put up when he went to Millwaukee, but the way he did it.  Not only did he dominate, but he showed guts, demanding the ball on three-days rest multiple times to pitch his team into the playoffs.  Whatever team lands him in 2009 will have a great pitcher at the front of their rotation.

The problem with Sabathia is the deal he is going to sign and the risks involved with it.  Let's assume he gets a deal similar or slightly better than the extension Johan Santana signed with the Mets.  That means six years and somewhere around $25 million a year.  That is simply tremendous money for anyone and especially a pitcher.  Sabathia has thrown over 600 innings the past two years and it is not a stretch to imagine his arm will wear out at some point during his upcoming deal.

So, does that mean it is too much of a risk to sign him?  For almost any other team than the Yankees the answer would probably be yes.  But, the Yankees are about to explode their revenues with a new ballpark and they are one of the few teams in the league (maybe the only one) that could put $25 million of their payroll into one player and not have to have a big contribution from him.  (And don't forget about the deal the Yankees signed with the Dallas Cowboys yesterday, that is going to make a lot of money for the team)  Signing him solves a lot of problems heading into 2009 and it only costs the Yankees draft picks.  Think of this as a mulligan on the Santana move.  New York needs to be the high bidder and they need to pull out all the stops to acquire him.  Yes, he may spend most of 2011 or 2012 on the DL, but in 2009 Sabathia returns the Yankees to contention.   I don't normally condone the buy the biggest name available approach, but in this case, get it done. 

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 05:22 PM | Permalink | Comments (10)

Tampa Bay just became a much, much tougher opponent last night.  One of the worst things about a Tampa-Boston ALCS was that the Yankees were going to have to open 2009 knowing they were playing in the same division as the AL champ.  In many ways, it would have been much better if it had been Boston again.  The Red Sox know they are good, they have won some titiles recently and another trip to the World Series would not have done that much to change them. 

Tampa on the other hand is a bunch of young guys who had no idea how good they were.  Now they absolutley know.  They survived on of the biggest in-game collpases in playoff history and now they are headed to the World Series.  I don't know what will happen there (again, go Phillies) but they will open 2009 a confident team.  And, they will be a young team.  Longoria, Upton, Garza, Shields, Kazmir...not one of those guys is even 27 yet.  Carl Crawford just turned 27, Carlos Pena is all of 30.  

The point is Tampa has a young and now experienced team.  The kind of team that can cause problems for the Yankees for years to come.  They were clearly better than New York in 2008 and unless something radical and I mean really radical changes they will be, at least on paper, heading into 2009.  If the Yankees had any doubts about having to get younger, I hope last night finally squashed them.  The future is in Tampa and not the part where the Yankees train.   

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 09:07 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)

Of all the offensive players available this offseason, Tex is clearly the class of the bunch.  He can hit and he plays a great firstbase.  Adding him to the the Yankees lineup would easily replace Giambi and upgrade the defense at the sametime. 

But, there is an inherent problem with signing Mark, you plug up first for the forseeable future.  Heading into 2009 the Yankees have a logjam of players who have positional questions hanging over them.  Will Posada be able to catch regularly?  Will Matsui be able to do anything except DH?  And longer term, they will need to find a position for Derek Jeter soon. 

On the other side, both Damon and Matsui enter the last year of their deals in 2009, which means in 2010 Posada could be a fulltime DH if needed.  That makes signing Teixeria doable, but there is one more factor to consider, his agent.  Boras is going to try and get a big deal for his player and it is important to remember that Mark will be 29 next season.  Signing him for more than six years is going to create problems down the road.  I just don't think Boras will settle for that, but if for some reason he does, the Yankees should and probably will be the high bidder.   

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 12:15 PM | Permalink | Comments (5)

Bobby Meacham is out as the third base coach in a move that is clearly a shot across Girardi's bow.  Meacham was his friend and coached for him in Florida.  After the season, Girardi even said that he didn't anticipate any changes to his coaches.  Apparently, Cashman felt differenly and he fired Meacham.

I can't argue with the move, Meacham wasn't good at all, but it will be very interesting to see who gets the third base job.  If the Yankees hire Willie Randolph for it, Girardi better win and win big next year or you will have #30 managing the club.

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 06:36 PM | Permalink | Comments (6)

Look at the difference between the 2007 and 2008 Yankees and you can chalk up the win differential on the lack of offense.  There are plenty of reasons for that, from a terrible season by Robinsn Cano to way too many AB's for Cabrera and Molina.  Let's look at the current 40-man and talk about who comes back and who has to go.

Catchers:  The Yankees ended the season with five catchers on their 40-man and they will cut that down to 3 immediately.   Chad Moeller and Ivan Rodriguez will be allowed to depart and that leaves the team with Posada, Molina and Cervelli.  Now, the Yankees will keep all three, but they need to look long and far for a better backup than Molina.  Yes, Molina is wonderful with the pitchers, but he can't hit and he isn't, how should I put this, "built" to play everyday.  Remember, Posada is coming to camp off of shoulder surgery.  The Yankees would love him to catch 120 games next year, but that may not be realistic.  The problem is, nobody will know what Posada can and can't do until he makes it to camp.  Counting on him to be the regular cacther is a risky move.

Infielders: We know Jeter and A-Rod are back and beyond that you have a lot of questions.  I would look around and see if there are better bench players than Betemit, Duncan and Ransom.  All three of them are flawed players, but the Yankees don't have anything in the minors better right now.  That will hopefully change towards the end of the year when the promising players in AA in 2008 do well in 2009, but for now the best idea is to probably just bring the three of them back and sit tight.

Juan Miranda is an interesting guy, buy I don't know his real age and he hasn't hit for enough power in the minors to give him a job out of camp. 

And that brings us to Jason Giambi.  There are some compelling reasons to bring Jason back, most of all his patience at the plate.  But, with Posada and Matsui coming off of surgery and Giambi useless at first, the Yankees have to free up his spot and let him go.  They will miss his bat, but deleting him from the roster gives them flexibility.  

Outfielders: Hideki Matsui is the only lock to come back and that is because no one will take him off of knee surgery.  Matsui has volunteered to bring a first baseman's glove to camp and Brian Cashman should let him.  Flexibility is great and not having to use Matsui as a DH everyday would be a plus.

Damon and Nady should be back, but the Yankees shouldn't be afraid to trade either of them in the right deal.  Most likely they are staying and you can pencil them in for left and right, though it should be remembered that Nady played first before.

There is no reason not to give Gardner, Christian and Cabrera another shot, though Gardner is probably the only one who can still be called a prospect.  Cabrera went backwards in 2008 and it is doubtful the Yankees would get much from him on the trade market.  Christian is too old to be a prospect, but his speed could help a team off the bench (assuming he learns how to avoid getting picked off)

Gardner is the most interesting guy because it is still unclear what he is.  One interesting pattern with Gardner has been his tendency to struggle when he comes to a new level and then it clicks for him.  He was awful in July and then hit a little bit in September.  Giving him the CF job is a big risk, but the Yankees may want to take a shot.  Austin Jackson is clearly the future, but he won't be ready probably until 2010.  With Jackson in the system, signing or trading for a centerfielder doesn't make a ton of sense.  Can Gardner handle 150 games in center?  I don't know if anyone can answer that question.

Last is Bobby Abreu, who had a very nice offensive season and a terrible defensive one.  Losing Giambi and Abreu from the lineup would be big losses and I think the Yankees should offer Bobby arbitration.  If he accepts it, you bring him back for one year, which isnt a huge risk.  (Remember Nady has played first) If he doesn't, the more likely scenario, you get draft picks.  To me that's a win-win, I wouldn't do anything else lke trying to sign him to a new deal.   

That's three more off the 40-man and possibly more if there are some better infield options out there.  We will start talking about free agents soon.   

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 03:03 PM | Permalink | Comments (10)