Congrats to Derek Jeter who was named Sports Illustrated Sportsman Of The Year today. He is the first Yankee to win that award and only the third athlete from a New York team to win. (Impossible trivia question- who were the others?)
It has been a treat to watch Jeter play for the Yankees for 14 seasons and it is nice to see him receive an award like this.
Let's see, the Blue Jays have an ace pitcher and the Yankees may be in the trade market for one. This has a familiar feel to it...oh that's right it's happened twice before- Roger Clemens and David Cone. In 1995, the Yankees traded for Cone in the midst of a pennant race. In 1999, they traded for Clemens at the start of spring training. Both trades are good barometers of what it might cost to land Roy Halladay in 2009.
The Yankees made a trade for Cone on July 28, 1995, sending three minor league pitchers to Toronto for Cone. Cone was two months from free agency and was coming off a Cy Young-winning season in 1994. It turned out to be one of the best trades in Yankees' history as Cone went 9-2 and pitched the Yankees into the playoffs. The three pitchers they surrendered were at AA and lower at the time and combined to win only 6 games in the majors over the course of their careers.
In February 1999 the Yankees traded for Roger Clemens, sending David Wells, Graeme Lloyd and Homer Bush to Toronto. Clemens was coming off of the 1998 Cy Young, but Wells had pitched very well in 1998 as well, going 18-4 with a 3.49 ERA. Lloyd you may remember as the Damaso Marte of his time. He had a rough transition to New York, but became a hero in the 1996 playoffs and settled into a productive role in the bullpen after that. Bush, who came to the Yankees in the Hideki Irabu trade, was somewhat like Freddy Guzman all speed and no bat. Clemens was two years from free agency at the time of the trade.
So, Halladay would probably fall somewhere in between these two trades. He is not as close to free agency as Cone was, but he is closer than Clemens was. Extrapolating from those two trades, the Yankees shouldn't have to give up a pitcher of the same quality as Wells, but they would need to give up better prospects than they did for Cone. Translate that into today and I would think a package of Joba or Hughes, Melancon and another lower-level arm would be about right. That's a trade I wouldn't make with Lackey available on the free agent market because once you trade for Halliday you are going to have to give him a huge deal as a contract extension. Now, if Lackey goes elsewhere, the Yankees need to give Halliday a long look.
Bob Sheppard announced his retirement yesterday and Yankee games will never be the same. From Joe DiMaggio to Derek Jeter, Sheppard announced every great Yankee in between. I believe it was Billy Crystal who said, "When I die and go to Heaven I want Bob Sheppard to announce me."
The Twins are trying to get local boy, Joe Mauer, to agree to a contract extension and their success or failure will have a big impact on the Yankees' offseason.
If Mauer doesn't agree to an extension he will become a free agent after 2010, and considering he is a catcher and only 27, he will be looking at a monster contract. Obviously, the Yankees would be one of the favorites to sign him in this scenario. Knowing this, New York could gamble and put their best prospect, Jesus Montero into trade proposals if they thought they could sign Mauer after the 2010 season. I know people are a bit down on Joba, but imagine what a package with Joba and Montero in it could fetch. But, if Mauer stays in Minnesota (and I think he will) the Yankees need to have internal options to play catcher and therefore must hang onto Montero.
I read today that the Twins hope to have these talks concluded by Christmas, so we should have an answer by then. Whatever happens, the Yankees will definitely be watching.
The next big choice facing the Yankees is which free agents they want to offer arbitration to. What this really boils down to is compensation. If you don't offer arbitration, you won't receive a draft pick if the player leaves. But, you only receive compensation if the player qualifies as a Type A or Type B free agent. (And, for those of you who remember the old system, you can keep negotiating with a free agent no matter what you do.)
As I have mentioned, the Yankees have seven free agents. Of those seven, Molina, Hairston, Hinske and Matsui (yes Matsui) didn't qualify for compensation. So, the Yankees don't have to worry about offering them arbitration because there is no reason to do so. That leaves three players, Damon, Pettitte and Nady who do qualify. Damon is a Type A free agent which means the Yankees would get two picks (probably a first rounder depending on which club he signed with and a "sandwich" pick, which is one between the first two rounds). Nady and Pettitte are Type B which means the Yankees would only get a sandwich pick. The thing to remember about arbitration is if you offer it and the player accepts, he is signed to a one-year deal. But, and this is important, he cannot earn less than 80% of his previous salary in the process. So, if the Yankees offer it to Damon and he accepts, he will make at least $10,400,000 in 2010. Arbitration has no middle ground, one side will win and one will lose. They can work out a deal, but if a hearing is held there can only be a winner and a loser.
That makes it a no-brainer to me for the Yankees to offer Damon arbitration. Worse case, he accepts and you have to give him a big deal for one-year. How much could he really make? With Abreu just signing for two-years/$19 million it would be hard to see him earn much more than the $13 million he made this season. That's a figure I think the Yankees could live with. Plus, with Boras as his agent I think he declines in search of a longer-term deal. That means the Yankees can wait and see what offers he gets, knowing they will probably get two top-50 draft picks if they decide to let him walk.
I would not offer arbitration to Andy Pettitte because I don't believe he is a threat to sign anywhere else and with a top-25 ERA in the AL, he could probably ask for and receive a big raise in arbitration. (Remember there is no limit to what a player can ask for) Pettitte's agents will compare his numbers to AJ Burnett. (not too far off and AJ earns $16 million.) They will compare them to Dontrelle Willis (100x better in 2009 and Willis made $10 million) In short, I think Pettitte might win whatever figure he asks for. I would prefer to just talk to Pettitte and try and work out a deal.
And that brings us to the last choice, Xavier Nady. Nady made $6.55 million last year, so he would be eligible to make at least $5,240,000 if he was offered arbitration. There is simply no way you can offer that to a player coming off of his second Tommy John surgery.
We will learn what the Yankees think in the next week.
We've learned the Yankees have added seven players to their 40-man roster while subtracting one. It's kind of an odd approach.
By adding seven guys (Ivan Nova, Reggie Corona, Austin Jackson, Hector Noesi, Kevin Russo, Eduardo Nunez and Romulo Sanchez) they protect those players from the Rule 5 daft. But, they also leave only one spot open on the 40-man, which they created by cutting Shelley Duncan (He isn't really cut, but he is not going to accept a minor league assignment, but more on that later) Leaving only one open spot on the 40-man means you have to start putting players on waivers if you sign more than one free agent. So, if the Yankees bring back Andy Pettitte and Johnny Damon, someone on the 40-man has to go through waivers.
The reason I find this odd is because of the way the Rule 5 draft works. Teams can select a player who isn't on the 40-man roster, but they then have to keep that player in the majors all year or offer him back to the original team. This actually happened last winter when Nova was selected by the Padres, but returned to the Yankees at the end of spring training because he wasn't ready for the bigs. So yes, leaving a player unprotected for the Rule 5 is a risk, but to remove him from the 40-man means you have to pass him through waivers only. Isn't that a bigger risk? So, I really don't get why the Yankees filled their roster almost to the brink, but I imagine we will read something about it in the next few days.
Of the guys they added, I think Russo has the best chance of making the team out of camp. He can play all over the infield and he put up a .326/.397/.431 line in AAA last year. The Yankees could very well bring him up as the backup infielder next year.
Jackson has been talked about everywhere, but looking at his AAA #'s last year it doesn't look like he will hit for enough power- yet. I see no reason to rush him and barring a monster spring, I hope the Yankees let him get comfortable in AAA for a few months in next season
Nunez is interesting because he has always been a good shortstop, but he had never hit prior to 2009. But in 2009, he took a huge leap forward offensively hitting .322/.349/.433. If he can keep that up the Yankees suddenly have their shortstop of the future.
Reggie Corona is another middle infielder and he has not hit at all. I would expect him to be the first guy waived if the Yankees need to free up a 40-man spot.
Ivan Nova split time between AA and AAA starting at both. He walks almost 4 per 9 and he doesn't strike enough guys out to be a legitimate prospect for 2010. He is only 21, so there is always the chance he can grow.
Hector Noesi is interesting because he strikes out a lot of guys with very good control. He is only 21 and he hasn't advanced past A ball, so he is unlikely to show up in the Bronx until 2011 at the earliest.
Romulo Sanchez is a guy the Yankees got from Pittsburgh for Eric Haker. He started and relieved in Scranton posting a 4.04 ERA in 64 innings. Since he is 25, it's hard to see him as more than a system filler a this point.
I mentioned that the Yankees sent Shelley Duncan to the minors, an assignment he will almost certainly refuse. I don't think Duncan would have ever become a star, but I don't understand why the Yankees chose to protect Sanchez and Corona while letting him go. I am sure some organization will pick up Duncan and it wouldn't surprise me to see him blast 15 home runs next season in the bigs. He would be a nice bat in a platoon.
It has been 15 days since the Yankees won the World Series, which means free agency is upon us. In less than an hour every player who filed for free agency is eligible to sign with another team. It also means that the 40-man rosters suddenly become a bit less crowded. For the Yankees, seven players will be subtracted from that roster and the thing we need to watch for is how many players get added back to the roster.
The Yankees have a lot of players who could be elevated to the 40-man and therefore protected from the Rule 5 draft. They could elevate all of them and then clear space as they sign free agents, but they are much more likely to only fill spaces they know will be empty between now and March. Who will they choose? There will be some obvious choices, like Austin Jackson added to the 40-man and some surprises. But, keep an eye on the 40-man roster tomorrow, the number of additions to it may give us an idea of the Yankees offseason plans.
Heading into the offseason we know who the top-2 pitchers in the Yankees rotation will be, but little beyond that. Will Andy Pettitte come back? Probably, but it's not a definite. Will Joba be in the rotation? I believe so, but I also think the Yankees won't keep him there for long if he pitches like he did in August-October. What are they going to do with Phil Hughes? That's a bit trickier because Hughes only pitched 105 innings in 2009 and even less that that in 2008. If he was a fulltime starter, the chances are we would see the "Hughes Rules" in effect in 2010.
So, I think the sensible thing is to go and get another starter, even if Pettitte returns. I do not advocate trading for Roy Halladay. He is a wonderful pitcher, but the price will still be steep and when you factor in the contract extension you would need to give him, I would rather sign Lackey. But, the Yankees may not think Lackey is a great investment. I am sure they will check in on him, but if the price is steep they will probably pass.
One way that the Yankees could go is ot sign Ben Sheets. You could probably get Sheets on a one-year deal with a bunch of incentives tied to it. Obviously, he is an injury risk, but Sheets is only 31 and he has been a very effective pitcher in the past. If he pitches up to his normal standards you would have a very good pitcher in the rotation. If he gets hurt, the Yankees have backups in Hughes or Ian Kennedy. (BTW- reports on Kennedy in the AFL were positive.
Another guy who the Yankees might want to consider in the same vein is Randy Wolf. Wolf is a little older and doesn't have the stuff Sheets has, but 214 innings for the Dodgers in 2009. As an added bonus, he is lefthanded.
The Yankees also have some other internal candidates to consider. They declined their option on Sergio Mitre, but they still can offer him arbitration. Chad Gaudin is also under team control in 2010 and I imagine the Yankees offer both of them arbitration. I feel that Gaudin has the higher upside, but Girardi seems to love Mitre. That worries me, but hopefully the Yankees give Girardi enough better options that his affection for Mitre doesn't matter. And of course there is Chien-Ming Wang. I don't see how the Yankees offer him arbitration, but he could be back on a low-base deal. The problem with Wang is that you really don't know when he will be back and what level of performance he will provide when he comes back.
I imagine the Yankees will be patient, which is fine. I just hope they come into 2010 with a new starter from outside the organization.
One of the tougher decisions facing the 2010 Yankees is how to allocate AB's to the DH spot. If they bring back Damon, they would have four different players (Damon, A-Rod, Jeter and Posada) who could potentially get more than 10 games each at DH. That's one of the reasons why the Yankees should only bring back Matsui at a reduced rate and with the understanding that he may only play 80-100 games. Will Matsui accept those terms? Your guess is as good as mine.
But, let's say he doesn't. Let's say the Yankees lose Matsui to some other team, how will they recover his lost production? My suggestion would be to consider giving a deal to Jim Thome. Yes, Thome is old and can't play in the field, but he is a reasonable match to Matsui with the bat (.249/.366/.481 for Thome '09 .274/.367/.508 for Matsui). Best of all, he has reached the point in his career where he just wants to win as evidenced by his acceptance of a trade to the Dodgers where he knew he wasn't going to do anything except pinch hit.
I would be willing to bet that Thome would be fairly cheap ($4 million?) and could provide a solid option if Matsui leaves. You could DH him 80 or so games and use him as a pinch hitter when needed. I would prefer a younger, more athletic option, but Thome wouldn't necessarily be a bad choice.
BTW- it's only been a week since the Yankees won, but it looks like Jeter has really let himself go. Yikes!
Where do stories like this one about George Steinbrenner come from? They come from somebody in the Yankees' organization who wants to create the illusion that George is still a part of the team. A better question is why does somebody want to create this illusion?
It doesn't matter what anyone has to say about George or his health, everything you needed to know about him was revealed last Wednesday when the Yankees won the World Series and he watched from Tampa. Healthy George is in that locker room or at least watching the game from the owner's box. But, the Yankees just celebrated their first World Series title since 1962 without George being part of the party and that tells me he is in a bad way.
I wrote about George at length in March 2008 and my feelings haven't changed. Whatever you think of him, it would be better if he were left alone to live out his life in private. The problem is, somebody in the Yankees' organization doesn't want to let him do that.