November 19, 2008

Goodbye Moose

According to Foxsports.com, Mike Mussina is going to retire. 

Not really a shock and I think this helps the Yankees out.  Moose would have wanted to come back for multiple years and at age 40, that is not a good risk to take.  Plus, despite their performances in 2008, I would still rather have Pettitte in '09 than Moose.

I will blog more on this later, but for now I am off to a hockey game.   

No Thanks

Jon Heyman is reporting that Derek Lowe's pricetag is $16 million per.  Figure he is going to want four years as well and I can't see any reason why the Yankees would choose four years of him over one year of Andy Pettitte at a lesser price. 

Coco a Go Go

Reports have it that Coco Crisp has been traded to the Kansas City Royals.  Of course this is in lockstep with my prediction that Crisp would be trade before training camp...training camp 2008.  So I was 10 months too early in my prediction.

SI.com's Jon Heyman is reporting that the Red Sox will get reliever Ramon Ramirez in return.  This is good for Crisp as he'll have a legitimate chance to start in his contract year (the Royals do have an option, but they probably don't have the resources to exercise it).

As for the Red Sox, they get a middler reliever who posted a 3-2 record in 71.2 IP with 57 H, 31 BB, 70 K for a 2.64 ERA and a 1.128 WHIP.  Not bad.  He is just 26 and only has 2+ years of service.  He is basically a strikeout per inning guy (146K's in 156.2 IP).

I'm not sure how long Ramirez will be in Boston as he may be included in another deal, but if he were to stay, he'd could take Justin Masterson's spot should Masterson re-join the rotation.

This opens up a bench spot for the Red Sox and essentially gives Jacoby the full time CF job.

Other news:  Both 3rd base coach Demarlo Hale and bench coach Brad Mills will be with the Red Sox as neither was chosen to lead the Seattle Mariners next season.

Evan Grant, Poor Guy

Poor Evan Grant, columnist for the Dallas Morning News.  Grant has admitted making a mistake in leaving Pedroia off his MVP ballot.

From Boston.com:

"I think the best way for me to sum it up is, in retrospect, obviously I was wrong," Grant said by phone. "My colleagues all, and people I respect an awful lot, thought Dustin deserved to be in the top 5. I had him on my ballot in some scenarios as high as No. 1 late into September. When I looked at the numbers that to me mattered most, OPS and batting average with runners in scoring position, he just didn't stack up with Youkilis at all. He was a laggard behind the others who had great years in the American League. Is it an error of omission that he's left off my ballot entirely? You could say that."

That's fine and good, but that issue I see here is that Grant had Pedroia #4 as recently as September 20.  Call it September 21st as his article was posted on the DMN at 11:57 CST, or 12:57am, 9/21 EST.

The key here is that Pedroia did nothing to drop 7 spots (or more) to fall out of Grant's top 10 list in that last few games of the season.  My take is that Grant just simply forgot about Pedroia.

We've all done it, right?  When discussing top players or best skills in any sport, inevitably we forget an obvious choice.  And that's fine, we're just human.  But to try and suggest others had a better OBP, etc. is a bit off.  I'm thinking he is attempting to, well, keep his membership with the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA).  By the way, why isn't it BWAA, was baseball really "base ball" back in the 1920's?

If his fellow BBWAA members read that he admitted omitting Pedroia by accident, he'd be off the team quickly, no?  Just ask ESPN's Rob Neyer and Keith Law about those making decision at the BBWAA.  They are a prickly bunch.

No matter, Grant has found himself in a position he probably didn't intend to get himself into, but like John Hammond said in Jurassic Park, "I don't blame people for their mistakes, but I do ask that they pay for them."

And pay for it he will.

Yanks And Sox To Clash Over Pitcher?

Interesting story here in Newsday about the Red Sox supposedly being "fully engaged" on A.J. Burnett.  We know that Toronto has offered 4-years and $54 million, so I think he signs for at least 4/$60 and probably more.  Considering his injury history and overall numbers I am not desperate to see him in a Yankees' uniform anytime soon. 

Obviously, any pitcher with a brain is going to wait until Sabathia signs and sets the market.  The risk for the Yankees is what happens if Sabathia goes somewhere else?  I imagine they would then turn around and make Burnett and probably Derek Lowe gigantic offers and that would be a big mistake.   

November 18, 2008

Pedroia - AL MVP

You heard it here last!

Dustin Pedroia became the 10 Red Sox to win the AL MVP award today.

2008 AL MVP Award Voting
Player, Club1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10thPoints
Dustin Pedroia, BOS16641      317
Justin Morneau, MIN7763311   257
Kevin Youkilis, BOS24492412  201
Joe Mauer, MIN281343321 188
Carlos Quentin, CWS 148444 11160
Francisco Rodriguez, LAA12616 32 2143
Josh Hamilton, TEX  22373243112
Alex Rodriguez, NYY    11414745
Carlos Pena, TB  1 2 232344
Grady Sizemore, CLE     2156142
Evan Longoria, TB     2252138
Cliff Lee, CLE   1111 1 24
Miguel Cabrera, DET     1 14117
Vladimir Guerrero, LAA      221 16
Jermaine Dye, CWS    1  2 214
Aubrey Huff, BAL     1  2312
Milton Bradley, TEX     11   9
Jason Bartlett, TB    1     6
Mike Mussina, NYY       1  3
Raul Ibanez, SEA         11
Ian Kinsler, TEX         11
Ichiro Suzuki, SEA         11
Mark Teixeira, LAA         11

The good news for the Red Sox is that they have a good 2b on their team.  The bad news is that he isn't yet arbitration eligible and the ability for them to affordably sign him was just lessened.

Some notes of interest:  Pedroia failed to get a vote from one of the writers, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News.  Basically Grant found 22 better players than Pedroia in the AL.  That is remarkable.  I say that not because Pedroia was that good rather how can opinions vary so greatly?

Kevin Youkilis finished 3rd overall.  That too will cost the Red Sox.  Youkilis is in for a big raise on his $3mm deal.

No other news that I can see regarding free agent signings or trades.  Stay tuned.

November 16, 2008

Hankenstein to Sign All Free Agents

In what is probably more posturing than statement of fact, Hank Steinbrenner announced that the Yankees have indeed made an offer to CC Sabathia, but also plan on making offers to AJ Burnett and Derek Lowe.

Why does this matter?  It probably doesn't as even if the Yankees do offer all 3 contracts, it isn't likely all 3 will sign, but it would mean their prices all just went up.  Which brings me to this news item from Milwaukee Brewers GM Doug Melvin.

Melvin went public with his confusion behind the Yankees reported offer to Sabathia.  "It sounds like they're overbidding.  If the speculation is true that we've offered CC $100 million, why would you offer $140 million? Why wouldn't you offer $110 million?"

Good question Doug.  Obviously no one knows who bid what except Sabathia himself, but it doesn't make too much sense.  If the Yankees decide to put their best bid forward, fine, but I'd be surprised to see Sabathia sign the reported Yankee offer but rather a further enhanced offered later on.

I've wonder why this happens all the time.  Both Alex Rodriguez signings baffled me as it was reported that no other team was even close.  The Red Sox signings of JD Drew and Julio Lugo also stuck me as overdone.

While acknowledging that much of what we hear during negotiations as fans turns out to be rubbish, there are often nuggets of fact surrounding the dealings.

Free agency isn't eBay where you can automatically win a bid by hitting a certain price.  These are real world business dealings and it seems foolish to throw Ft. Knox at a player when a local bank would do.

Melvin does fail to mention one important thing, the Brewers offer is for 5 years and the Yankees for 6, but still, the Yankees offer is more in years and more in average annual compensation.  Why not just go with 6-years and $120mm?

Chew on that for a bit.

Red Sox notes:  The Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo is reporting that the Red Sox and Detroit Tigers are considering a Julio Lugo for Dontrelle Willis or Nate Robertson.  Lugo is in the middle of a 4 year, $36mm deal while Willis has 2 years left on a 3-year $29MM deal ($10mm in '09 and $12mm in '10).  Robertson is in the final of his 3-year, $21.25mm deal ($7mm in '09 and $10mm in '10).

Now Lugo wasn't good in 2008, but he wasn't terrible.  His .352 OBP has to count for something.  For the most part, it was an overly forgettable, injury shortened season for him.

As for Willis, where do I start?  He fell off the cliff he was so bad.  In the Majors, he was 0-2 with a 9.38 ERA in 24 IP.  He allowed 18 hits and 35 BB!!!  What?  35 BB in 24 IP?  He also pitched about 56 IP in the minors last year with a 4.50 ERA.  He was at class A Lakeland and AAA Toledo and allowed a 4.50 and 4.55 ERA respectively.  So even in the minors against A-ballers he was shaky.

I don't know if Willis has anything left, but if the Tigers take all of Lugo's salary, I'd say make the deal because the Red Sox seem to have settled on Jed Lowrie and taking a gamble on Willis and having it pay off is better than taking a gamble on Lugo and having it pay off.

As for Robertson, he too was bad.  He pitched 168 IP in the Majors with a 6.35 ERA, 218 H and 62 BB.  Simply miserable.  Robertson has never been as good as Willis, so I would say a Lugo for Robertson makes no sense as even if Robertson reverts to form, his form wasn't really good in the first place.

Makes you understand why the Tigers were do bad last year.

Lastly, ESPN has a report on Red Sox almost suspending Manny Ramirez a week before he was traded.  I'm tired of this story and can't wait for Manny to be someone else's problem.

November 15, 2008

$25 Million To Go

The Yankees made $1 million tonight by selling the rights to Darrell Rasner's contract to a Japanese club.  So a mediocre pitcher going from the U.S. to Japan only nets $1 million while the opposite (or worse) nets $26 million?  Maybe Congress should look into this....

November 14, 2008

Free Agent Crystal Ball

Here are Andy and Peter's predictions for where the Top-10 free agents will end up.  As always take this with a grain of salt.  (We used Keith Law's rankings on ESPN.com to determine the list) 

For the top free agent, Mark Teixeira, we both see him returning to the California Anaheim Orange County Greater Los Angeles Area Angels.  The Yankees and Red Sox remain possibilities, but remote ones.

Andy - Angels

Peter - Angels

Both of us agreed again on CC Sabathia ending up with the Yankees.  Money talks and the Yankees clearly are going to spend it here.

Andy - Yankees

Peter - Yankees

And we were in agreement on Manny Ramirez returning to the Dodgers.  Manny will definitely take the highest check, we just couldn't see any other team giving him that.

Andy - Dodgers

Peter - Dodgers

Our first difference of opinion came on AJ Burnett.  Andy sees him heading to Texas noting that Texas always seems to make the wrong move with pitching.  Peter sees him heading back to Toronto, just with a bigger check in his pocket.

Andy - Rangers

Peter - Blue Jays

We agreed again on Derek Lowe with both of us seeing him heading back to Boston.

Andy - Red Sox

Peter - Red Sox

On the subject of Rafael Furcal we both saw him heading to the Bay Area, just to different teams.  Peter saw him heading to the Giants and Andy had him heading to the A's.

Andy - A's

Peter - Giants

Adam Dunn also divided out opinion with Andy sending him to Toronto and Peter seeing the Nationals getting him.

Andy - Blue Jays

Peter - Nationals

For Ryan Dempster we both saw him heading back to the Cubs, but with the proviso that if they trade for Jake Peavy, they won't make the move.

Andy - Cubs

Peter - Cubs

While Andy sees Milton Bradley returning to Texas, Peter has him going to Toronto.

Andy - Rangers

Peter - Blue Jays

And that brings us to the final player, Oliver Perez.  Andy has him returning to the Mets while Peter swallowed hard and predicting that Perez will be a Yankee next year.

Andy - Mets

Peter - Yankees

What do you think?   

Free Agent Frenzy Time

Well that bell you heard at midnight was the start of free agency in Major League Baseball.  Or it was last call at whatever pub some of you booze-bags were drinking.  Either way, you can expect the rumors to start flying.

For Red Sox fans, there is no real indication what they are going to do.  For C.C. Sabathia, I think you'll see the Red Sox mentioned if and only if there appears to be no one competing with the Yankees for his services.  Basically they'll get involved only to drive up the price and only if needed.  If the Yankees immediately big 6-years at $150mm, then mission already accomplished.

I think the same applies with Mark Teixeira although I would not be surprised to see a sincere push by the Red Sox.  Obviously you have the corner infield positions manned already, but Teixeira is a better hitter than Lowell or Youkilis (from a career standpoint, not necessary based on just 2008).

The Yankees trading for Nick Swisher is a head scratcher a may signal a lack of interest in bidding for both Sabathia and Teixeira.  Swisher has good power and obp, but his lack of batting average is starting to bring down his obp and he might just be depth at this point, as Peter speculated yesterday.

Derek Lowe to me makes sense assuming he isn't looking for $15mm a year.  Lowe has a proven track record of being able to play in Boston.  He has made it known, if we are to believe reports, that he would love to play in Boston.  At 35, he isn't likely to be the same pitcher he was 10 years ago, but he has never had a major health issue since being a full time starter.

The Red Sox have salary to play with, even in this economy.  I see them adding bench players and maybe 1 major free agent signing, but that is all.

More to come as news hits.